Mos Oil

USO, looks to be bottoming looking at the chart. It has bounced off 28.24 a couple of times providing some support. I am long at 28.90 and my out is the 28.22 and I will adjust as it moves up. The 50 MA may provide resistance.


Here is MOS, I went short I am trying to play the range it has been in for the past couple of weeks. It has failed to break out above the 40. I also liked the doji 2 days ago, and a decline the next day. It also is forming what might be the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern. My out is 40.50


This is Astoria Federal, its a bank around Long Island and Queens and I used to have an account with them. They stink and the stock market knows it too. I've been short since 11.02 and my out is the orange line at 10.48. Sucks for you Astoria Federal, take that and all your dumb fees you charged me. Karma is a bitch!

Bye Options

I took a break from trading the past couple of days. I took it on the chin, and lost all my gains for the month and some capital. I was trading only options and really have little experience in them, but the times I was trading them I made some good bank, till last week I got caught in the bear trap on the 21st and made some stupid trades after. So I am not trading options anymore, they just don't suit my style and to be honest I don't know how to trade them.

So I went back to square one and went back to my old style. I needed this ass kicking, I was getting to cocky after some great gains last year and this month(which are now gone). So touche, Mr.Market.

I entered some new positions and they are doing good. Charts to come later, my eyes need a break.

A bottom so you think.

Below is a chart of the $NYSI (NYSE Summation Index). "the Summation Index provides a longer range view of market breadth and is used to spot major market turning points. "(stockcharts.com)
To me this provides a pretty accurate indicator of turning points in the market. From DecisionPoint, we learn more the about the Summation Index.

"The direction of Summation Index movement, up or down, is an indication of whether money is moving in or out of the market. When the Summation Index moves below the Zero Line it is an extremely negative sign for the market and indicates that a long-term down trend is in progress and is likely to become more severe; however, it is also likely that a significant market bottom is a few weeks or months away. Once the Summation Index drops below the Zero Line, we should anticipate a bottom in the area of -1000 or below. Once that oversold Summation Index bottom has formed, it provides strong evidence that a major market bottom is in place.


Looking at the past declines and rallies in the market, one can gauge where the market is at this current time.
Each time we have had a major decline two things happen with the $NYSI. First when the $NYSI turned negative and declined past the Zero line, we had substantially declines in the market. Since May 19th, the index has not climbed back above the Zero Line.
Each decline has found a bottom when the $NYSI is below the -1000 line. Each bottom was also signaled by a bottoming in the RSI and STOCH crossing signal. The same can be said for each top of the market before a decline, the RSI signaled overbought and STOCH have crossed.



So looking at where the market is now, we have rallied off the Nov lows and the $NYSI is above the Zero line, the first time since April of 2008, before the market had its biggest declines. But the $NYSI, looks to be heading south towards the Zero Line. The RSI is overbought and the STOCH is at its highest level since the start of the bear market, but has crossed giving a sell signal. Although the SPY looks to be bottoming the $NYSI is not showing a sign of a bottom or being oversold. If we cross below the Zero line the market could decline significantly, breaking the November lows. If we are bottoming we need to see the $NYSI turn around and head north, not south for the winter.

That Just Happend Bulls

Shake and Bake! We play for keeps!

I closed some of my SPY and DIA Puts. Still holding my XLF, MS and BWLD puts.
Took a loss on my CNQ and HAL.

I entered a Put position on SPG(Simon Property Group). For the obvious fundamental reason, that SPG is the owner of commercial real-estate properties. If you haven't heard, retail is spitting up blood and dying and finally people realized they don't have money to shop, as this continues store closings will increase. Empty properties mean loss of revenue and profit and so on and so on.
Lets look at the chart though.
This a 10 year weekly chart. The 200MA and 50MA have now formed the death cross. The Trendline is clearly broken and both the Stoch and MACD are coming close to sending a sell signal. I will add to my put if I get these signals. My out is 52.26 and I am looking for 30's for a target.

Today is the big day, Obama gets into office and will fix the country in 5-7 business days. Unfortunately the country is beyond fixing. Once again that market is going the in crapper because of these banks. Overseas lead the way with RBS losing a boat load and England getting a $100 billion bailout. Pipp Pipp Cherrio Lad all is well.
Across the pond we have BAC needing money, C needing money.
So just like last time, banks will lead this market down. Lets look at XLF. Which I have APR 9 Puts on.
As of 8:12 it is trading at 9.20, we break this line and it could be free fall time.

Right now XLF is at the bar having a good time, he wants to go home but his friend's SKF and my Puts are telling him to stay. So right now he has a choice; he stays lands up blacking out, making out with a large lady and landing up back at her place and having to do the walk of shame or he goes and only stops off at the dinner for cheese fries and wakes up with heart-burn and a bad hang-over. Its your move XLF.

Wait Wait, Financials are still in trouble

This is news to me. I thought everything was fine, they got billions of dollars from the tax-payers and the some of the stocks were up 30%. CNBC said it everything was great.
Douche Bank and HS.B.S posted poor earnings and need to raise money. Not to mention Citi is selling off its self to Morgan.
Futures are down, past the 860 as well. I decided to move out and look at a longer-term view of this market.
Lets look at 2002-2003, As you can see the 85.35 was support in 2001 and resistance 2002-2003. This is a weekly view of it. But where does this play with this years market.


Lets look at this year's market, as you can see the 85.35 has been a HUGE support level for this market, in weekly terms.

Now more of a daily view, it shows this as a big support level as well.


The market is set to open down again today, keep an eye on 85.35 today.
I am out of my Calls from yesterday, I felt gross being a bull. I bought more Puts and added to my SRS. I am also out of TAN for a loss and XLU. I was using these as hedges that was silly.

It's a High School Dance out there

Right now the market has the potential to go either way. It's like we are at a junior high dance and the boys don't want to go talk to the girls, nor do the girls. So whoever makes the first move will make the market move. I am leaning towards the Girls( Bulls), to go first. The big fat friend of the hot cheerleader, will walk over and tell us Boys (Da BEARS), that the hot cheerleader likes us. Then we will go all in and take this market down lower. I am slightly bullish because we are hitting the 860 RL and there is support around 860-850. Plus Op Ex date is Friday and someone could spike the punch at the dance causing a big rally.


I exited my SPY Puts, I really shouldn't have but I had 103% gains. I should've just hedged against the upside move.

I also got Long TAN, this was a hedge trade but hasn't worked out.

My VIX Calls are working out great

I bought some DIA and SPY Calls for a short-term trade. This position makes me uncomfortable.

I will be buying puts again. I really don't like being a bull at all.

TNX

TNX which can give some insight to where the market might be heading. But the technical's are conflicting, with a possible Bull Flag on the price chart and technical indicators showing sell signals. If the bull flag fails, it will indicate more flight to safety and negative for equities


UPDATE: Exited my GDX Puts earlier today. Gold is just whipsawing around no reason to be in that.

Take a Knee Market

The market didn't do to much today, in fact the volume sucked. The 92.00 area seems to be support and there is resistance around 93.60 area. Not to mention there is a Fib Retracement above the 93 area. So the path up will be met by some selling pressure.


Another reason why Short-term the market is bearish. According to Mr. Dow Jones we need transports to rally as well. That doesn't look like it will happen short-term, IYT is moving up to some over-head resistance. It failed to break out above it today, and has moved to over-bought territory.



This rally is not being lead by Financiald. In fact XLF is hitting resistance at its down-trendline and 50 MA. Until Financials break out, I can't see the market rallying much further, without taking a short breather.



What is leading the market is Obama stimulus plan related sectors.
One sector is Energy, look at this break out. Broke through resistance, today is showed strong volume as well, it still has some room to run before it is overbought as well. It could have support around the 50's if we pull back a little.




XLU is another sector that has broken out during this rally. Although it looks like its due for a pullback short-term.

Shop Lifting

RTH: Well RTH rallied today right up to the 78.53 Resistance Line I drew yesterday. I bought some April Puts on RTH today. We have Retail numbers that come out tomorrow morning, which I can't see being anything great.
Reason why I am bearish again RTH are as follows:

1. Short-Term Overhead resistance at 78.53
2. Longer-Term Resistance at 50% Fib Retracement
3. Longer-Term Poor Fundementals on the overall Retail Sector