Still some juice left in the pot( Some shorts and some longs)

Tim Knight over at Slopeofhope.com(if you haven't gone to his blog yet, you should be ashamed of yourself, its a great blog) Made a nice observation, that I've been feeling. In his latest post he mentioned that this market has become hard work, and its true but I sure do love it. But I wouldn't mind a break.
So let me do some of the work for you, here are a couple of a ideas. Do with them as you wish, **But read my disclaimer first, I don't need any fights like the in the last post to occur just because of me**

DF-Hitting resistance at around $20 and has filled it's gap (that's what she said). A short around that level with a stop at $22.50 not a bad idea.


TXRH- Similar looking chart to DF, expect this one is below its 200MA, declining RSI, MACD. Zoom out to the 5 year weekly and it looks even better.


FDO- I am showing the 5 year weekly, to eliminate some of the noise of the daily. It's close to breaking its trendline. All the indicators are showing divergence. It's right at the sweet spot of the triangle. This looks GOOD!


CENT- I usually don't do "fundamental" trades but WTF! This is a company who sells Lawn Garden and Pet supplies. Yep I am sure those will be in high demand in the depression. Then take a look at their fundamentals. Just something to think about. Plus the 5 year looks like a good short.



There are a few long, but be careful since the trend of the market is down these could go either way:

MEE- Forming a double bottom, and an energy related stock. A bounce in energy could send this stock higher.


SHW- This is showing some nice positive divergence on MACD and seems to have found a bottom. A break out of the down trendline is bullish, or I am going to wait a couple of days and see what SHW does when it gets to the sweet spot of the triangle.


MO- could find a bottom soon, some support at 14.04.


So there you have, some shorts and some longs. Do as you wish with them. Have any comments on them please post them.

I closed my HIG position today, wish I didn't I set my stop way to tight.
Still holding PFE, my stop is 12.35, I may move it tomm.
Still holding SSO.
And I bought some TLT in the morning today.

What really goes on when John Q public listens to Cramer

Just a little humor, I actually got a nice post coming up, with a bunch of shorts and longs.

I had a typo going to Stockcharts.com and this is the webpage that came up and I just pictured some loser actually trading with his girlfriend, showing off buying some financial stock.
I bet this was the convo.


Dude: See honey, I am going to buy 1,000 shares of C at 8 with the last of our life savings. Cramer says its a buy and there is no way this bank will go down anymore.
Girl who's bra is showing through her shirt: A big boooyaahhh to you, just make sure to buy me something pretty! Jim is always right.


I think the funny part is here is a pic of the couple just yesterday.

The Convo went like this

Dude: Damn it, Michelle you burnt the meatloaf again. Just shut your mouth, I will work overtime and make some extra cash. Your the one who said to buy more at $6, YOUR JUST LIKE YOUR MOTHER!!!!!
Girl who now spends all day crying: Why are you doing this Richard, please stop, We need more money and I will not whore myself out again, Richard. Please stop yelling the neighbors can hear you. I'm going to my mothers!

Vaild Indicators

My previous post I mentioned that the market isn't following its normal indicators, well today it did.
$TNX finally followed the market today. It actually formed a funny looking pattern the "Smile F You Bulls Pattern". If TNX was a regular stock it looks like a great short. I think the Risk/Reward on TLT is a good trade here, but I will watch and make sure the trade is there.


Now to the VIX, it finally moved with the mark up 13%. If we break out of that triangle, watch out bulls! That means PANIC! There is great support for the VIX with its 20 and 50 MA siting below and a strong trendline.


I hope you saw my PFE post and shorted PFE with me. I sold my DRYShitters, for a small lose I stuck to my stop and it worked out just fine. Sold my PG Calls for a lose too. I am still hold my SSO shorts and HIG.
On thing I am noticing, is you have to scale out to 5 year charts to see support on a lot of these stocks, and they still have room to fall.

Pfizer PFE

Pfizer(PFE) pre-market has broken through a support from 1997 at 12.30. There is no strong support on Pfizer till about 3. This looks to be a great short.

Invaild Indicators and some things to think about

The S&P has broken to new lows, the economy has shrank at 6.2% and banks are begging for more money each day.
Yet the VIX indicates that everything is relatively clam. So could this be signaling a lack of selling pressure and fear in the market and a bottom? Has this decline been lead by a lack of buyers not heavy selling? Or could is there still selling pressure out there, that hasn't hit the market yet?


Another indicator is $TNX, normally when the market is falling $TNX follows the market down as there is a flight to safety; as investor pile into bonds, sending yields down. Since early February's, $TNX has been moving up, showing there was a selling of bonds. $TNX also looks to be forming a double top. So this could signal more downside if $TNX starts to fall.

This leaves the market with a few questions.
Are the Bondie's trying to tell us something about where interest rates will be heading soon? A rise in interest rates would be harmful to these markets.
Where are people going with their money if they aren't buy securities and they aren't buying bonds?
Or are these rise in interest rates the product of the govt selling bonds to raise money for all the debt sorry "Credit" they will be pumping into the economy?

Another indicator that is off is $TRIN, is has hardly reached panic selling levels or stay above 2.00 during the last couple of days.

Personally I think these charts are indicating that there is still some downside left to this leg. There is a lack of fear in the market, bottoms are not formed when there is complacency in the market. The VIX is sitting on its trend line and looks like it wants to bounce off and run up.
Also investors have not piled into bonds as a safe heaven for their money.
So to me this says that there is still money in market that has not ran for the hills, so the potential for a sell off is slightly greater then a rally. For a rally more money would have to come into the market, with the latest news out and the levels we are at I don't see that happening.
I'd love to hear some of your guy's comments on the questions I raised too.

The market is at a confusing point, we will have some significant economic data this week as well. So it won't be long for the market to pick its direction. Futures are down 5.00 as I type this. Should be a fun week!