Last year called, they want their scapegoat back!

Does this sound familiar, the market was getting crushed, investors were losing money, banks were failing and puppies were dying. This couldn't go on any longer, someone had to be blamed for this. So what did the Gov't and the SEC do; they banned shorting on Financial stocks and other stocks that just wanted to be on the "cool list". At least the gov't now had someone to blame. It was those dirty short sellers doing this. It wasn't the economy, the economy was just fine. All was well for a couple of days. Remember that, seems like so long ago.

Here we are again, the market is heading to 600, even more banks are failing, C is going to 50cent and kittens are exploding left and right. Since nothing the gov't has done so far has worked, they decide let's blame the shorts again but this time we will say its the "up-tick rule" and we will throw in the "mark to market" account laws. And there you have the market roars 6%.

Here is how I think the next couple of days will play out, I think we work to fill the gap around 740 but there the market will meet up with some heavy resistance and the 20MA. It will allow the market to work off its over sold condition as well, giving some momentum to the bears. At the same time, on the 12th the gov't will say "Letting banks mark these toxic assets to what they see as a "fair value", is about a good idea as letting a 3rd grade Boy Scout troop go to a NAMBLA meeting, and the up-tick rule will not be brought back". This will be the sell the news trade and the market will start its way back to 600.

I am also watching the VIX closely, it went below its trendline but was able to close above it. A break of this trendline is potentially bullish for stocks, but there is still support at its 200 MA


I hope no one faded me on ACC today, it was great the stock was up 13%, I was able to catch 7% of that move. I also went long ERTS and shorted SSO towards the end of the day.
I have to also give a shout out to guys over at Slopeofhope.com for the SKF Put trades. These finally worked out and were just GREAT!!!!!!

Weekly Fade Me List!

Update: Long ERTS and Long ACC, staying away from shorts, covered DF, keeping a close eye on PTRY


So it is the start of a new week and new opportunities to make some cash, because I can't sling the crack rock and my jumper is just not up to NBA standards.
So here is your weekly list of trades to fade me on!

BBBB- BBBB has broken its trendline, the MACD is rolling back over to negative numbers and the divergence on the MACD shows weakness. I am looking to short this stock. Oh yeah and I use Blackboard and it stinks!


ACC-Sticking with the college theme, this looks like a good buy here. It just completed a bear flag pattern and there is a lot of support around 15, you have to go back to 04-05 but its there. I will be Buying


ERTS- I am just watching this lil' fella for now. There is support, but I would like to see it break out of the triangle, and over the 20MA with some volume. I am waiting and watching.


HME- Here is a REIT, crazy! But I like the price action, it dipped below its support on Friday but finished the day up and today formed a bullish engulfing pattern. I would've liked to see more volume, so I am going to watch and take a small position. I am buying


BRE- Another REIT! Similar price action, BRE bounced off support the past couple of days and today made higher high and lower low. I am waiting and watching


ASCA-Here is one I am watching, it is showing some weakness. It failed to close above its 20 and 50 MA, its nearing the bottom of triangle and upward trendline. So I am waiting and watching this one.


I sold my TLT position today, I don't like the action in $TNX. I was hoping for more of a flight to safety as this market moved down. My PTRY short is working out very nice! Shout out to Mr. Tim Knight for that trade.
The market was down today, yet oil and fin's were up. So there is still some weakness with this market. I don't think its good to short at these levels though, so I am looking at individual stocks.

Inspiration for the bulls!

Inspiration for the bulls!

It's too bearish out there

It's ok lil' fella!
Tomorrow are the big jobs numbers everyone has been waiting for. If we gap down tomorrow, I am looking to cover my shorts. $NYSI is almost never -1000 indicating oversold. Also, there was to much bearish sentiment chatter out there and the market seems very beat down. CNBC was hurting today, one guy said to short banks, DylanRattigan compared this crisis to 9/11! WTF!, and Crammer said the market wasn't near a bottom.

So FDO was a horrible trade, one good thing I can say was I stuck to my stop (28.50) and I was lucky enough to get out pre-market, saving some good coin.

TLT:
It finally broke out of that triangle, I have moved my stop on it, green line. TLT looks like it wants to run up, which could be negative for the market.


I also went long FST: It looks to be forming a double bottom and finding support, Stoch is turning upwards and has almost worked itself out of oversold territory.



Another High Risk trade I took today was buying some SKF puts. It's a high risk trade, but so far it is up +11%. It comforting see SKF up 16% and my puts up 11%.

What was that, oh an Up day?

We have one up day and the bottom is. To qoute Tony McAuliffe "ah nuts!", so relax bears the bulls have one up day and they think they are up for the year. We will still win the war, its ok to sit on cash for now and wait in our fox holes.

Just an update on my trades and if you were fading me congrats!
The market does seem to have formed a rounded reversal on the SPX. So we could have a short-term bottom. Corey over at Afraidtotrade.com sees this too. (Great blog check it out)
I did close my SSO shorts this morning. But did go short again via SPY Puts when the SPX was at 722, this afternoon.

I was stopped out of my PFE short for a loss.

I shorted FDO, with a stop at 28.50- I had no idea Cramer talked about this stock and I'm embarrassed he mentioned the same triangle I see, but Jim said he be buying FDO. So I might still be right.
I shorted TRXH with a stop at 8.36
I shorted DF with a stop at 21.50
I bought MEE with a stop at 10.05

Some notes about the day:
$VIX bounced off its 50MA
$NYSI might be leveling off
$SPX closes above 700
Market rallied while Fins were down
10am Geithner talks!