Break Down of the S&P Top 10

It's easy to look at the S&P and judge from the price action where to place your trades. But inside the S&P is a larger group of stocks that have more influence over the index. Here are the top 10 stocks weighted in the S&P. These are the stocks that can make the index move. So judging on where these stocks are, you can have a better look at where the market might go.

1. XOM 5.50%
   
2. JNJ 2.25%
   
3. PG 2.24
4. T 2.10
5. MSFT 1.95
6. CVX 1.94
7. IBM 1.73
8. WMT 1.65
9. GE 1.42
10. PFE 1.32

XOM: Since early Feb XOM failed to get above 72.50 and even the during past couple of days when oil has be ripping. It's next support is at 61+. With XOM being the biggest part of the S&P and drop below $70 is negative for the index, and anything above 72.50 is positive.

JNJ: You have to take JNJ to a 5 year weekly chart to find support. This stock has been falling for a while. On a yearly, chart JNJ is making new lows each day. Its only support is around 48. JNJ needs to find a bottom for it to be positive for the S&P.


PG: Here is another S&P component that is getting crushed. Its next support is 47.50 a price all the way from 2004. Again this stock needs to bottom soon, a break of those 2004 lows would be very harmful to S&P


T: Finally a stock that hasn't been abused more then Jodi Foster in "The Accused". But it has failed to break resistance around 25.50. But it has support around 22.50, so a retracement and bounce back above that resistance is a good possibility. As of now it's range bound. Levels to watch for 25.50 and 22.50.


MSFT: This is a weekly chart to 1997. MSFT is not looking good, from a yearly look it closed at the lows of the session almost making another new low. Looking at a longer term chart, if the trend continues it still has another 2 points to go before it hits support. Watch for a bounce at 15, failure of this will allow for further downside.


CVX: This chart we can look at on a yearly level. Right now it is trading in a descending triangle. It failed to break out today and tomorrow it will be in a sweet spot of the triangle, so it should break out or down. A move below 62.50 and it breaks down, a move above 65 and it breaks out. This will be a key stock to watch tomorrow.


IBM: To me this chart looks gross, but it is bullish. It has close above its 50MA. indicators are turning up and has a good amount of support beneath it. This is one of the few stocks that looks good and will help the S&P move up.


WMT: Similar to T and XOM. WMT is in a range from 46 to 50. It has failed to break and looks to be heading down to test the support. Key area to watch are 46 and 50.


GE: The trend is down in GE, not much more to say about that, buying here is trying to catching a falling knife. It just made new lows and today formed a nice shooting star. You have to take this stock to 93-94 to find support at around 6+. Unless it bounces off the lows soon it will keep making its way to 6. Which doesn't help the S&P.


PFE: Pfizer needs to take a little blue pill to get back up. PFE has made new low again today The chart here goes to 1991-1992. There is some support around 12 but its not very much, if it breaks 12, it is going to $3 easily. So this is a stock to watch out for!


Overall, most of the stocks look to still be heading for additional downside. Although a majority of them have support within a few points and the index has 490 other stocks that can move it.
But looking at the S&P, it does look to have more downside to it, probably to the Nov Lows.

But what could send the index lower, is if some of those stocks like PFE, GE, XOM, JNJ, MSFT, PG and CVX break though their key supports which they are heading towards. So put these stocks on your watch list and keep an eye out on the key levels.


Covered my Short SKF call, shorted more SSO and went long DRYS, and was stopped out of USO for a lose what a dumb trade. Paid my market tuition on that one