Saturday, May 30, 2009

SPX and all it's time frames

You have to give a slow clap to whatever that was at the end of the day on Friday, painting the tape, running stops, window dressing, front-running. Whatever it was, it wasn't normal market action.   If anyone tells you that is just the normal market.  Smack them.  Market Ticker has a great theory on what that was I recommend checking it out. 

Hindsight it looks like the market broke out of the small ascending triangle(look at the 60 min chart).  Had you just looked at a chart today that's what you would see.  But that isn't the case, the market decided to break out with only a few minutes left, which is way the move was nonsensical. Look at the 1 min chart.

 Here is the SPX 60 Min chart.  You can see the break out of the triangle which looks like a normal break out. Notice the SPX closed right at the descending triangle trendline.  The last 2 times it did this the market sold off(3rd time a charm?)  The 200MA is getting closer as well, if the market is going to breach this level, it could start another round of buying, since a break of the 200 would be seen as bullish.  I perfer the 200 EMA though. 

SPX daily closed right at its descending trendline, this could hold as resistance.  A breakout above this would send the market at least to its 200MA. SPX is still within it's triangle and needs to breakout/breakdown to give a market direction.

The weekly chart is something to take notice of, it is consolidating and constructing a pennant.  A break out of this will be very bullish so a move above 920-930 would be a big break of the pennant, but a break of 880 would be bearish.  This has been the range the market has chopped around for the last couple of weeks.  Till one of these S/R levels are broken expect a round bound market.




Since Friday was the end of the month, it is a good thing to look at the monthly chart.  This chart looks bullish but it is a longer-time frame and anything can happen.