Thursday, July 30, 2009

Dunked

The market climbed high and hard today but at the end of the day couldn't remain above some key longer-term resistance levels.  I've been trying to respect the longer-term trends and not use my short-term view to define the longer-term trends.  But it is nice when the short-term and long-term meet.
992 is a key resistance level I've been watching first is the 200EMA on the monthly SPX chart.  A close above that would be significantly bullish.  On the monthly chart it is now looking bullish having 5 months in a row, unless something crazy happens tomorrow.  Notice how the 2003 bear market ended, looks very similar tot his market move. 
But a 200EMA on the month chart holds siginficant resistance.
Combined that resistance with the weekly downtrend line and you have siginficant Long-term resistance.

Then looking at the daily, 995 was the completion of the bull flag and the 995 area was the 2008 highs. STOCH is also overbought and RSI, Stoch acutally crossed giving a sell signal.


 Then on the SPX hourly the market moved to those resistance levels and failed, but one thing to take note of is the MACD barely made a new high while the market did.

   Here is one thing to take note of the CPC was at .60 very low.

 I am holding some SDS from 46.40 with a stop at SPX 992. But before you start screaming SHORTTTTT!
Remember SPX broke out of a tight range and now has 980 as support, in-fact there is great support below this market 970-950-900-May lows.  Until the bears can get below a support level and defend it the trend is up.  The risky trade is trying to catch the top.   So I leave you with some words by Jesse Livermore
One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent