Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Showing a chance of a pull back

MEGA B charts have given a signal that a pull back may be likely at these levels.
Right now the NYDVN and NYDEC moving average is at a level that usually provides the market with a signal that a pull back is coming. 
Here is the most updated chart:  When the down volume reaches the green line the market has pulled back from it's highs.  Notice on the chart the decliners is also at it's yellow line this, signals a pull back may be likely.  Notice in January of 09, there was 4 sell signals.  Right now we only have 2.
The pullbacks here are very sharp and strong.  But there are times when the pullback has been shallow, especially when the market is in strong up-trends.  Here is the remaining times  when the NYDVN has hit the green line.  First chart is 2003-2005, the signal was not given again till 2008.
You can see the sharp moves are when the market was in a bear market.
 Here is 2000-2002:  Notice again the shallow declines in a Bull Market

 
It will be interesting to see if how the market pulls back or if it does.  There have been times when the market has pullback a little and ran up. All these times have been when the market was above its 200EMA which is the case now and was in a Bull Market.  So depending on how the market reacts it could be a signal if in fact the market has entered a Bull Market.