Monday, August 17, 2009

Up Volume Gone

The up volume to total volume or (NYUPV:NYTV) today was at .06 a very low number although not the lowest.  This ratio has been .06 and lower only 31 times since 1997.  All but 4 of these occurrences occurred in 07-09, most occurred in 2008 when the market had its most volatile time.  With a VIX in the 70's
Here is a chart fshows today's dip in the lack of Up Volume.  The NYUPV:NYTV is just a 1 EMA so you can see better when this ratio has hit .06 or lower.

On average the next day the SPX was up 8.38, but some of the biggest up days have been after the upvolume to total has registered a .06 or lower.  SPX has rebounded 50 points after losing 50 points.  More importantly is that this large one sided day in volume shows that volatility has moved back into the market.  Most of these occurrences of such a high propotion of downside volume has occurred in the most volatile markets.   Together with VIX breaking out today( as seen in this evenings post by BEAR), and the sign of a complete one-sided market today.  The market could be signaling that more large moves can be on the horizon and a much more dangerous market.  These moves can be both to the upside and to the downside so be careful on both sides if volatility comes back into the market.