Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Broken Tools

If the price action lately has been making you scratch your head and saying "Wtf is this?", then take a look at some of the most reliable indicators and oscillators. These indicators and oscillators are screaming bearish divergence, either that or they are broken and cannot be trusted anymore.

First here is NYMO, normally if the market is exploding higher each day NYMO would move a good amount with the market. NYMO touched -75 on Oct 2nd, it is now barely about 20. Just look at the pervious market rallies and how NYMO has reacted bounce off its low of -75. NYMO has barely budged during this monster rally. Either NYMO is broken or something is screaming beware.


NYSI- Very similar to NYMO but on a longer-term time frame. Just look at this chart, NYSI hasn't even made a move up, it is almost flat line.

TICK- Notice the highs it made during the rally from July, when the market was making new highs so was the 5 MA on TICK. Now the market is making new highs and TICK is failing too.


These indicators are reliable and right now they are showing lots of divergence between their movement and price. This divergence coupled with the lack of volume may be signaling that the market rally might be running out of steam. Or the new market with constant gap ups, no meaningful correction and back to back to back to back days up, could just be wrecking the indicators proving them useless.