Monday, October 12, 2009

End of Day Review looking at Oil SPX and the Dollar

Today was a typical holiday trading day.  Low volume and swings. but in the end SPX closed at another high for the 6th day up in a row.  While this is bullish, SPX may be nearing an overbought condition.

Here is the Volume of the market:
When the Up-volume to Total Volume ratio reaches above .60 it starts signal an overbought condition.  When Down-Volume to Total Volume reaches close to .35 it is overbought too.  The Moving averages are nearing these conditions.



One thing to be wary of if you are long is that MACD is not making new highs.  MACD has barely moved up with this latest market move.  If this move had strong strength to it, it would have moved the MACD.  You want to see MACD make new highs with the market.


It is still hard to get very bearish with SPX making new highs and energy breaking out.

Oil still has not broken out but is nearing it's high for the year, it broke above its June highs.  The 75 area may provide some resistance and a pullback.  But Oil's MACD is performing just like SPX's, it is not making new highs with the price and oil's stoch is showing overbought.

So watch oil, if it starts to pullback it could bring the market with it.  This is what has happen after the pervious rallies since March.

XLE broke out today and has now retrace 32% from its high in 07 to its low in 09.


Of course can't forget about the U.S Papyrus De Toilet.  I personally think Bob Pisani has been selling the dollar just so he has something to talk about everyday.
Is it possible that the dollar may be forming a DOUBLE BOTTOM!

The 76 level just might be providing some support of the dollar.  But every single bullish pattern for the dollar has been completely destroyed.  But it does look like the dollar may be forming some type of short-term bottom.  Pisani is shitting his pants, he won't know what to talk about if this happens.

So let's bring it all together, SPX making new highs, meeting resistance at 1080, nearing overbought.  Oil is nearing resistance and showing signs of overbought.  U.S Peso possible forming a bottom or sideways action.  So the key will be to see if energy can keep climbing to boost the market, but if the dollar does find a bottom here both the market and oil can see some weakness.