Monday, October 12, 2009

New Week

While sacked out on the couch sick this whole week, I would occansionally put on Mad Money, partial to see what Cramer was saying but more to induce vomit. While watching that stellar piece of market commentary I remembered one phone call some lady calls up and says this and I quote "I am a beginning investor, DECK has had a long run up, is this a good short". I was running a high fever and thought I was hallucinating because someone suggested SHORTING! on Mad Money.
Right away I knew after hearing that this market had to go higher. It has to kill those people who for the first time in their life discovered shorting after the 2008 crash and now think they can make money shorting the market. Till these fake bears are brought out back and beaten like a red headed step child the market will go higher. This latest pop might even be the one that does it.
But I also might have had my Shoeshine boy story this weekend too! That can come later.

SPX had one of its best weeks of the year rallying hard after a small "correction". It is now nearing it's highs in Sept and almost poised to possibly break them.
The Sept highs may provide some resistance, since there are still some bulls underwater from buying at those levels. RSI is nearing overbought and STOCH is overbought. There is also a gap unfilled at 1060. A move to the 1070 level may provide a pullback or a consolidation.

On the daily chart, the trendline is still in tack and climbing. (may chart isn't a log anymore so it reflects the new trendline).

It will be interesting to see what the next few days bring for the market. There are a few potential bullish patterns that could be forming.

While SPX is looking more bullish then bearish, the lack of volume is still a concern:

The last 3 days have seen low volume on the moves up, but this is a double edge sword. But this doesn't mean the rally is weak or fake. Look at the volume around Sept 8th when the market was nearing it's previous highs. The volume was low, once it broke it's highs volume came back into the market.

NYAD keeps climbing and is showing strength. The trendline is still up and it has broken out of its highs of the year. This shows advancers are leading price.

Another bullish sign is NYHL, is making new highs a head of making market highs and keeps climbing.


Overall SPX is nearing some short-term resistance at the September highs and may pullback to close the gap at 1060. But there is now stronger support below the market after it tested the 1025 levels and was able to hold. 1054 should be a level to watch now as support.