Looking at yesterday's post. Thanks to some great GDP numbers the market is open a lot lower today. Should open below 740 as well. Some of the S&P Top Ten are heading lower today and may open below critical support.
XOM- has now broken $70 pre-market, XOM is a good short below 69.50
PG- making another new low
MSFT- looks to be heading to $15.
CVX- should open below its support and the triangle is broken.
JNJ-another new low, look at below
So get on PPT, you have your work cut out for you
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Break Down of the S&P Top 10
It's easy to look at the S&P and judge from the price action where to place your trades. But inside the S&P is a larger group of stocks that have more influence over the index. Here are the top 10 stocks weighted in the S&P. These are the stocks that can make the index move. So judging on where these stocks are, you can have a better look at where the market might go.
JNJ: You have to take JNJ to a 5 year weekly chart to find support. This stock has been falling for a while. On a yearly, chart JNJ is making new lows each day. Its only support is around 48. JNJ needs to find a bottom for it to be positive for the S&P.
PG: Here is another S&P component that is getting crushed. Its next support is 47.50 a price all the way from 2004. Again this stock needs to bottom soon, a break of those 2004 lows would be very harmful to S&P
T: Finally a stock that hasn't been abused more then Jodi Foster in "The Accused". But it has failed to break resistance around 25.50. But it has support around 22.50, so a retracement and bounce back above that resistance is a good possibility. As of now it's range bound. Levels to watch for 25.50 and 22.50.
MSFT: This is a weekly chart to 1997. MSFT is not looking good, from a yearly look it closed at the lows of the session almost making another new low. Looking at a longer term chart, if the trend continues it still has another 2 points to go before it hits support. Watch for a bounce at 15, failure of this will allow for further downside.
CVX: This chart we can look at on a yearly level. Right now it is trading in a descending triangle. It failed to break out today and tomorrow it will be in a sweet spot of the triangle, so it should break out or down. A move below 62.50 and it breaks down, a move above 65 and it breaks out. This will be a key stock to watch tomorrow.
IBM: To me this chart looks gross, but it is bullish. It has close above its 50MA. indicators are turning up and has a good amount of support beneath it. This is one of the few stocks that looks good and will help the S&P move up.
WMT: Similar to T and XOM. WMT is in a range from 46 to 50. It has failed to break and looks to be heading down to test the support. Key area to watch are 46 and 50.
GE: The trend is down in GE, not much more to say about that, buying here is trying to catching a falling knife. It just made new lows and today formed a nice shooting star. You have to take this stock to 93-94 to find support at around 6+. Unless it bounces off the lows soon it will keep making its way to 6. Which doesn't help the S&P.
PFE: Pfizer needs to take a little blue pill to get back up. PFE has made new low again today The chart here goes to 1991-1992. There is some support around 12 but its not very much, if it breaks 12, it is going to $3 easily. So this is a stock to watch out for!
Overall, most of the stocks look to still be heading for additional downside. Although a majority of them have support within a few points and the index has 490 other stocks that can move it.
But looking at the S&P, it does look to have more downside to it, probably to the Nov Lows.
But what could send the index lower, is if some of those stocks like PFE, GE, XOM, JNJ, MSFT, PG and CVX break though their key supports which they are heading towards. So put these stocks on your watch list and keep an eye out on the key levels.
Covered my Short SKF call, shorted more SSO and went long DRYS, and was stopped out of USO for a lose what a dumb trade. Paid my market tuition on that one
- XOM 5.50%
- JNJ 2.25%
- PG 2.24
- T 2.10
- MSFT 1.95
- CVX 1.94
- IBM 1.73
- WMT 1.65
- GE 1.42
- PFE 1.32
JNJ: You have to take JNJ to a 5 year weekly chart to find support. This stock has been falling for a while. On a yearly, chart JNJ is making new lows each day. Its only support is around 48. JNJ needs to find a bottom for it to be positive for the S&P.
PG: Here is another S&P component that is getting crushed. Its next support is 47.50 a price all the way from 2004. Again this stock needs to bottom soon, a break of those 2004 lows would be very harmful to S&P
T: Finally a stock that hasn't been abused more then Jodi Foster in "The Accused". But it has failed to break resistance around 25.50. But it has support around 22.50, so a retracement and bounce back above that resistance is a good possibility. As of now it's range bound. Levels to watch for 25.50 and 22.50.
MSFT: This is a weekly chart to 1997. MSFT is not looking good, from a yearly look it closed at the lows of the session almost making another new low. Looking at a longer term chart, if the trend continues it still has another 2 points to go before it hits support. Watch for a bounce at 15, failure of this will allow for further downside.
CVX: This chart we can look at on a yearly level. Right now it is trading in a descending triangle. It failed to break out today and tomorrow it will be in a sweet spot of the triangle, so it should break out or down. A move below 62.50 and it breaks down, a move above 65 and it breaks out. This will be a key stock to watch tomorrow.
IBM: To me this chart looks gross, but it is bullish. It has close above its 50MA. indicators are turning up and has a good amount of support beneath it. This is one of the few stocks that looks good and will help the S&P move up.
WMT: Similar to T and XOM. WMT is in a range from 46 to 50. It has failed to break and looks to be heading down to test the support. Key area to watch are 46 and 50.
GE: The trend is down in GE, not much more to say about that, buying here is trying to catching a falling knife. It just made new lows and today formed a nice shooting star. You have to take this stock to 93-94 to find support at around 6+. Unless it bounces off the lows soon it will keep making its way to 6. Which doesn't help the S&P.
PFE: Pfizer needs to take a little blue pill to get back up. PFE has made new low again today The chart here goes to 1991-1992. There is some support around 12 but its not very much, if it breaks 12, it is going to $3 easily. So this is a stock to watch out for!
Overall, most of the stocks look to still be heading for additional downside. Although a majority of them have support within a few points and the index has 490 other stocks that can move it.
But looking at the S&P, it does look to have more downside to it, probably to the Nov Lows.
But what could send the index lower, is if some of those stocks like PFE, GE, XOM, JNJ, MSFT, PG and CVX break though their key supports which they are heading towards. So put these stocks on your watch list and keep an eye out on the key levels.
Covered my Short SKF call, shorted more SSO and went long DRYS, and was stopped out of USO for a lose what a dumb trade. Paid my market tuition on that one
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Well Played Oil Can Boyd
Save as Draft
Looks like Oil Can Boyd, threw me a curve when I was looking for a fast ball.
This morning I entered a USO Short, for 2 reason. I saw a double top on CL( Oil Futures) and it looked like the EUR was going to bounce. Combined with my prediction on USO, I thought this would be a good entry. So far it hasn't worked. I still think the bear flag plays, until that down trendline is broken. I took a much smaller position, so my loses are not hurting me. Ideally I should've waited at least to the open and for the inventories report to come out, even better for the bear flag to break. I was a premature trader on this trade, more then likely I am to early for this trade and will be taking a lose.
I am was stopped out of my SSO today but re-entered because a little birdy told me too. I also hedged myself by selling an SKF call earlier in the day, which has done well so far.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
How low can USO go
Update: Short USO pre-market, small position will add to it if USO breaks that flag.
A couple weeks back I was short USO based on its descending triangle formation. Based on the technical formation of it USO was expected to make a 10 point drop from 28 to 18, since the triangle was from around 38 to 28. I was stopped out of my short and through market ADD, forgot about this lil' fella.
USO looks like to be forming a nice bear flag. This move would actually complete the measured move on the descending triangle, and possibly signaling a bottom for USO. Let's go to the chart.
You can see the descending triangle which has been broken and since then USO has been in a nice decline. The past 4 days the move has consolidated and has began to move up, what looks nice is the volume has been consolidating. I will be watching this very closely, especially since we have Inventories out tomorrow. If the flag is broken to the downside, it should be a 6 point move bringing it to 18ish. Which would complete the measured descending triangle move and maybe a bottom.
A couple weeks back I was short USO based on its descending triangle formation. Based on the technical formation of it USO was expected to make a 10 point drop from 28 to 18, since the triangle was from around 38 to 28. I was stopped out of my short and through market ADD, forgot about this lil' fella.
USO looks like to be forming a nice bear flag. This move would actually complete the measured move on the descending triangle, and possibly signaling a bottom for USO. Let's go to the chart.
You can see the descending triangle which has been broken and since then USO has been in a nice decline. The past 4 days the move has consolidated and has began to move up, what looks nice is the volume has been consolidating. I will be watching this very closely, especially since we have Inventories out tomorrow. If the flag is broken to the downside, it should be a 6 point move bringing it to 18ish. Which would complete the measured descending triangle move and maybe a bottom.
Sneak Peak at Mad Money tonight
I was able to get Jim's notes on today's market. Here they are:
I closed out my PUTS today but at the end of the day Shorted Small SSO position, we may or may not have hit a RL level, that's for you to find. If you look at a real chart, not Jim's you can see that we are still inside yesterday bearish candle. A move to 800 wouldn't surprise me, in-fact I would like that.
Still trading lightly here, don't have to much conviction to go long or short.
I closed out my PUTS today but at the end of the day Shorted Small SSO position, we may or may not have hit a RL level, that's for you to find. If you look at a real chart, not Jim's you can see that we are still inside yesterday bearish candle. A move to 800 wouldn't surprise me, in-fact I would like that.
Still trading lightly here, don't have to much conviction to go long or short.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Here's to you Buy and Hold Investor
*Cue Bud Light Music
Pikertrader.com salutes you Mr. Buy and Hold Investor!
Mr. Buy and Hold Investor, you stuck it out from 1997 to now. When the market roared in the tech bubble you didn't sell you said "I am holding for it to go even higher www.PuppySweatShirts.com is going to be a great business", when the market tanked after the Tech Bubble you called your Broker and said "Buy, the market will go higher and buy 10,000 shares of Enron it's a steal". Then from 2003 to 2008 you watched your portfolio soar to great heights and tumble to great lows, yet you still held. You even bought Lehamn Brothers, Bear Sterns, AIG and now Citi.
So congratulations Mr. Buy and Hold investor you have invested for the last 12 years and your returns are negative, while your adviser, brokerage firm and gov't has raped you of your hard earn cash, you sat and did not sell but bought more and held on.
So we salute you Mr. Buy and Hold investor and may the next 12 years be as awesome as the last 12
Today was a great day. I wasn't even at the torrent today but managed to look at the market at 3:42 today and see the greatness. One thing that I noticed was it was an orderly step-by-step take down. Volume was somewhat low and $TRIN wasn't even above 1.00.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Is a "crash" coming?
A lot of traders and media get caught up in the daily movement of the stock market, it is always good to take a longer-term view of the market.
Here is the Dow Jones, weekly chart going back to 2002. The last couple of weeks the market has continued its decline. It has tested the November Lows and today barely broke them. Yet, it still has yet to significantly test the '02-'03 Lows. Remember what this chart looks like.
Now, on a daily outlook the market is oversold. We have had 3 of the last 4 days down on the DOW and the up day was barely an up day. I can assume by using the SPX RL's that the DOW is also almost at a 100% RL. So if the DOW drops tomorrow, it should bounce off those '02-'03 lows, RL's and lets not forget, OPEX is tomorrow and shenanigans will be played.
So if we get an up day tomorrow the last 2 weeks on the chart could look like this.
Those two candles are from Oct 15th and Oct 16th 1987. If you don't remember what the chart above looks like scroll back up and take a mental picture. Now lets look the year 1987.
This chart is from May 1987 to Oct 16th 1987. To my piker eyes, it looks very similar to the DOW chart above. Removed the date and numbers and it is almost the same. The market touched the lows in late April and May (Just like the '02-'03 lows we could test) and bounced off them. So Friday Oct 16th, the market closed off the years earlier lows. All indicators were oversold and looked like it might be a bottom.
Of course we know what happen on Oct 19th.
So does this mean we are going to have a crash Monday? Maybe we do but the historical probability that we are are so low that calling it would make me just as dumb as; Cramer or the rest of CNBC crew(Minus Santelli and Erin Burnett (I love you!)).
Also lots has changed since changed since 1987. The biggest was the PPT was created right after the 1987 crash! Monday if it looks like we are crashing in the morning they can certainly come in and stop it.
Plus, just like Trader X says from The Art of the Trade- The market is never the same, because the players are always different.
But I do think we test the Nov and 02'-03' Lows. And its official $NYSI broke the Zero line
Here is the Dow Jones, weekly chart going back to 2002. The last couple of weeks the market has continued its decline. It has tested the November Lows and today barely broke them. Yet, it still has yet to significantly test the '02-'03 Lows. Remember what this chart looks like.
Now, on a daily outlook the market is oversold. We have had 3 of the last 4 days down on the DOW and the up day was barely an up day. I can assume by using the SPX RL's that the DOW is also almost at a 100% RL. So if the DOW drops tomorrow, it should bounce off those '02-'03 lows, RL's and lets not forget, OPEX is tomorrow and shenanigans will be played.
So if we get an up day tomorrow the last 2 weeks on the chart could look like this.
Those two candles are from Oct 15th and Oct 16th 1987. If you don't remember what the chart above looks like scroll back up and take a mental picture. Now lets look the year 1987.
This chart is from May 1987 to Oct 16th 1987. To my piker eyes, it looks very similar to the DOW chart above. Removed the date and numbers and it is almost the same. The market touched the lows in late April and May (Just like the '02-'03 lows we could test) and bounced off them. So Friday Oct 16th, the market closed off the years earlier lows. All indicators were oversold and looked like it might be a bottom.
Of course we know what happen on Oct 19th.
So does this mean we are going to have a crash Monday? Maybe we do but the historical probability that we are are so low that calling it would make me just as dumb as; Cramer or the rest of CNBC crew(Minus Santelli and Erin Burnett (I love you!)).
Also lots has changed since changed since 1987. The biggest was the PPT was created right after the 1987 crash! Monday if it looks like we are crashing in the morning they can certainly come in and stop it.
Plus, just like Trader X says from The Art of the Trade- The market is never the same, because the players are always different.
But I do think we test the Nov and 02'-03' Lows. And its official $NYSI broke the Zero line
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Almost there!
The NYSI is very close to breaking the zero line. A cross below the zero line is bearish for the market. The trend is obviously down on NYSI and if the market moves down tomorrow it should send the NYSI over zero.
I mentioned in an early POST, about each markets decline in regards to the NYSI.
Thursday may be the tipping point for the market.
I mentioned in an early POST, about each markets decline in regards to the NYSI.
Thursday may be the tipping point for the market.
The Whole Crew was out Today
He-Man and the Masters of the Universe were all out today, keep the DOW about that November low close. At the end of the day you could hear Benny B going. "I HAVE THE POWER!!!"
I think even Battle Cat was buying to keep it above 7552.
Then once they got their print they dumped it, after hours.
It was a day of chop again, I suspect it will be this way till 3:00 Friday.
We also bounced right off the 786 RL. This level will still hold for Thursday since we did not close up.
I am getting worried, seems to be a lot of chatter about testing the Nov lows. Which could mean we aren't going to.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Saved by the Bell
Looks like Zack and the crew were saved by the closing bell today. We closed at the low of the day today.
The wedge is now finally broken on SPX.
I bought a small DIA PUT position and QQQQ, if the market goes down more The Q's have more downside potential as well.
I think the key index to watch now is the DOW and the Transports. The Dow is closer to its November Lows then SPX.
The Dow is sitting 124 points away from the Nov Lows. But the line in this chart is 75.52 the, to me this is more of a significant support level, since it was the lowest close we had. 75.52 represents the close of the first Nov Low Candle and the open of the second. The DOW is 1 point away from that.
Confirming this down move is the Dow Theory, Transports have made another new low. If I see a follow through on Transports, I would expect the Dow to follow.
I am being defensive of my PUTs right now, for a couple of reason. The VIX spiked this morning but as the market continued its decline, the VIXs always declined, although there was a spike at the end of the day.
Also TRIN never moved above 1.00 for the day, which could be seen as bullish, but this number might have to do with the inverse ETF's getting a lot of volume today.
Plus to me this is perfect, F-the little guy time, tomorrow we have housing and Fed Minutes and Obama talks about his "Save the idiots" plan. Plus its OP EX week and we all know the BS that goes on that Friday.
The wedge is now finally broken on SPX.
I bought a small DIA PUT position and QQQQ, if the market goes down more The Q's have more downside potential as well.
I think the key index to watch now is the DOW and the Transports. The Dow is closer to its November Lows then SPX.
The Dow is sitting 124 points away from the Nov Lows. But the line in this chart is 75.52 the, to me this is more of a significant support level, since it was the lowest close we had. 75.52 represents the close of the first Nov Low Candle and the open of the second. The DOW is 1 point away from that.
Confirming this down move is the Dow Theory, Transports have made another new low. If I see a follow through on Transports, I would expect the Dow to follow.
I am being defensive of my PUTs right now, for a couple of reason. The VIX spiked this morning but as the market continued its decline, the VIXs always declined, although there was a spike at the end of the day.
Also TRIN never moved above 1.00 for the day, which could be seen as bullish, but this number might have to do with the inverse ETF's getting a lot of volume today.
Plus to me this is perfect, F-the little guy time, tomorrow we have housing and Fed Minutes and Obama talks about his "Save the idiots" plan. Plus its OP EX week and we all know the BS that goes on that Friday.
The Floor is gone!
ES is 7 points below 800, support has no become resistance. Asia and Europe were down big today, will the US Market follow.
The Euro is being taken out back and being destroyed
Yen is Down as well.
TNX is down 5.90%---Flight to Quality continues
The VIX needs to confirm this move down today.
I will be hesitant to take any new positions because this is trickery area and the PPT or the Gov't could come out anytime and say something along the lines of "We are going to buy everyone house and give them candy". Also its OP EX on Friday. He-man and the other Masters of the Universes will be out this week
The Euro is being taken out back and being destroyed
Yen is Down as well.
TNX is down 5.90%---Flight to Quality continues
The VIX needs to confirm this move down today.
I will be hesitant to take any new positions because this is trickery area and the PPT or the Gov't could come out anytime and say something along the lines of "We are going to buy everyone house and give them candy". Also its OP EX on Friday. He-man and the other Masters of the Universes will be out this week
Monday, February 16, 2009
I can feel it in the air tonight
Futures are down tonight and have been down the past 2 days. I am getting a feeling that there is a peaceful calm right now, but over the horizon there is a storm approaching. Of course I also sense the PPT will be stepping in soon if things get bad.
I still think the wedge formation is in play. The market has not closed outside of it yet or broke free of it's range. The market is now in the sweet spot of the wedge, where the market must makes it decision to break out of the wedge.
This is how I use 2Sweet's Retracement Levels, and my own analysis to play the market and the wedge pattern. If we look at the RL's, the next Short Level is 838.36, which hold a 58% chance of a reversal at this level, and it the most frequent level as well. Each level above the 838.36, provides an even better shorting opportunity. If we look at the next Support or Go Long level, it is at 816 with a 26% chance. After that the next level is 804, and that is only a 44% chance. So based on his odds, my overall bearish views, and the current wedge pattern, I am playing a move to the downside, with the wedge pattern being broken.
I just have SPY Jun 70 Puts. I know I swore off options but I feel comfortable with my analysis and risk reward on this trade.
Here is some reading to make you ponder if everything is going to be alright:
Ireland is having a worse time then the potato famine
Great write about about Easter Europe and their bank Failures by Mish
There is money to give Dorthy in Kansas
Japan's GDP will be smaller then their penis sizes (IT'S A JOKE, I received permission from my Asian friend to post that)
Tomorrow is D-Day for the Big 3
I still think the wedge formation is in play. The market has not closed outside of it yet or broke free of it's range. The market is now in the sweet spot of the wedge, where the market must makes it decision to break out of the wedge.
This is how I use 2Sweet's Retracement Levels, and my own analysis to play the market and the wedge pattern. If we look at the RL's, the next Short Level is 838.36, which hold a 58% chance of a reversal at this level, and it the most frequent level as well. Each level above the 838.36, provides an even better shorting opportunity. If we look at the next Support or Go Long level, it is at 816 with a 26% chance. After that the next level is 804, and that is only a 44% chance. So based on his odds, my overall bearish views, and the current wedge pattern, I am playing a move to the downside, with the wedge pattern being broken.
I just have SPY Jun 70 Puts. I know I swore off options but I feel comfortable with my analysis and risk reward on this trade.
Here is some reading to make you ponder if everything is going to be alright:
Ireland is having a worse time then the potato famine
Great write about about Easter Europe and their bank Failures by Mish
There is money to give Dorthy in Kansas
Japan's GDP will be smaller then their penis sizes (IT'S A JOKE, I received permission from my Asian friend to post that)
Tomorrow is D-Day for the Big 3
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Save the Idiots Save the World
Is that what they are trying to do. Is there someone whispering this into the ears of the politicians and other people who are killing the country.
Save the idiot banks who thought Risk was only a board game that takes forever. Or are we suppose to save the idiots who thought Debt actually was a good thing. Are we suppose to save the idiots that thought they could pay $3000 a month mortgage payment when they were making $24,000 a year. Are we suppose to save the auto industry who thought it was a smart idea, making crappy cars and gas guzzlers, while everyone wanted hybrids. The list goes on. This won't stop until the idiots are either dead are have learn not to be idiots. I'm hoping for the latter.
In case you got hammered today remember they can't keep it up. Then watch this and take comfort in knowing that we will get revenge!
Save the idiot banks who thought Risk was only a board game that takes forever. Or are we suppose to save the idiots who thought Debt actually was a good thing. Are we suppose to save the idiots that thought they could pay $3000 a month mortgage payment when they were making $24,000 a year. Are we suppose to save the auto industry who thought it was a smart idea, making crappy cars and gas guzzlers, while everyone wanted hybrids. The list goes on. This won't stop until the idiots are either dead are have learn not to be idiots. I'm hoping for the latter.
In case you got hammered today remember they can't keep it up. Then watch this and take comfort in knowing that we will get revenge!
US-NOO!!!!!
The USO Short has been working out nicely. I am still playing it as a descending triangle with a 10 pt measured move.
Retail and Jobs numbers came out, its very comforting because more people are losing their jobs and more people are spending. There you go America, spend more money you don't have!
My BWLD Puts are going to be Zero hahah. They reported good earnings. Who is going to these places! Oh well. Some much for my gentrification plays.
Retail and Jobs numbers came out, its very comforting because more people are losing their jobs and more people are spending. There you go America, spend more money you don't have!
My BWLD Puts are going to be Zero hahah. They reported good earnings. Who is going to these places! Oh well. Some much for my gentrification plays.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
BACK BACK IN NEW YORK GROVE
Da Bears
I killed it today. I was patient and followed a game plan. I closed out my Long USO perfectly and then in the words of Busta Rhymes; I flipped it on ya and shorted USO at 28.11. USO broke its descending triangle and its going down.
I got stopped out of JASO as well. Great trade on that one.
I went long GMCR MAR 35 Put. I know I swore off Options but for indiviual stocks I will use them.
Suck it bulls. WILDCARD BITCHES!
I killed it today. I was patient and followed a game plan. I closed out my Long USO perfectly and then in the words of Busta Rhymes; I flipped it on ya and shorted USO at 28.11. USO broke its descending triangle and its going down.
I got stopped out of JASO as well. Great trade on that one.
I went long GMCR MAR 35 Put. I know I swore off Options but for indiviual stocks I will use them.
Suck it bulls. WILDCARD BITCHES!
Mistakes I was making
1. Making trades that I didn't have an edge in. My style has always been swing trades usually 3-4 days. Or Macro economic plays for long term. Lately I was trying to make day trades or quick trades that I didn't clearly know the proper entry and exits
2. Not using good risk/reward. I was taking a trade with a lot of risk and little reward. Based on the fact I thought I was right.
2a- Expecting rewards not in-line with the capital I was using per trade.
3. Not having an exit. Looking over the majority of my trades, my exits were not realistic most of the time they were the Nov lows
So, I went back the drawing board and it has been working so far. I went long USO on Friday and sold half yesterday. I went long JASO on Thursday and Shorted SSO on Friday as well.
Today should be very interesting.
2. Not using good risk/reward. I was taking a trade with a lot of risk and little reward. Based on the fact I thought I was right.
2a- Expecting rewards not in-line with the capital I was using per trade.
3. Not having an exit. Looking over the majority of my trades, my exits were not realistic most of the time they were the Nov lows
So, I went back the drawing board and it has been working so far. I went long USO on Friday and sold half yesterday. I went long JASO on Thursday and Shorted SSO on Friday as well.
Today should be very interesting.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Heading to Russia for a training session
Ivan Drago just killed my account, well not all of it but enough for me to stop. So its time to head to a shack in the Russian woods and train, while blasting "Hearts on Fire". I've already bought the Ox Cart and grew a beard.
I know I am on the cusp of being a decent trader. I never said I was a trader, I am a piker and don't try to hide it. I've made money before, I make the right trades but to many times I make stupid trades. These trades are dumb impulse trades most of the time or the past couple of weeks I made trades based on my belief I wanted market to tank. My losing trades are losers because the majority of the time my entry points are wrong, I enter to early and exit to early.
I'll be back with my edge and I'll make Drago bleed and Duke will whisper in my ear "He's worried! You cut him! You hurt him! You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man!"
If anyone even reads this and has similar experiences, I appreciate hearing them. pikertrader@gmail.com
Oh and for the sucessful ones who were fading me. I am LONG USO, with a stop for a profitable trade. Fade away! I'm coming back and taking your cash next time.
I know I am on the cusp of being a decent trader. I never said I was a trader, I am a piker and don't try to hide it. I've made money before, I make the right trades but to many times I make stupid trades. These trades are dumb impulse trades most of the time or the past couple of weeks I made trades based on my belief I wanted market to tank. My losing trades are losers because the majority of the time my entry points are wrong, I enter to early and exit to early.
I'll be back with my edge and I'll make Drago bleed and Duke will whisper in my ear "He's worried! You cut him! You hurt him! You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man!"
If anyone even reads this and has similar experiences, I appreciate hearing them. pikertrader@gmail.com
Oh and for the sucessful ones who were fading me. I am LONG USO, with a stop for a profitable trade. Fade away! I'm coming back and taking your cash next time.
Jobs day
So today is jobs day. Everyone is waiting for the numbers to see what the market is going to do.
Currently this morning, the YEN is up, Oil is down. Everyone is waiting for the numbers.
New Position I went long JASO
Currently this morning, the YEN is up, Oil is down. Everyone is waiting for the numbers.
New Position I went long JASO
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Lately market there is a wedge between us...
Its really not you its me.
Lets look at the S&P. We have a nice long term wedge forming, and if you break it down the purple trendline shows a tighter wedge being formed. We have failed to get above the purple trendline, 3 times already. I would call that resistance, but wait there is more resistance at the 20 EMA, the 50EMA and the larger trendline down. So the bulls have their work cut out for them, because if you look where support is, its the bottom of the wedge and then Nov lows.
On Tuesday I said I wanted to get long USO. USO actually came right to where I wanted to buy 28.11 but I didn't pull the trigger. I thought about it a little more. USO is forming a nice descending triangle and using that triangle risk/reward, was almost even. Now waiting a couple days, I might have been right. The Euro also looks like it wants to bounce, which could send oil down more.
I will wait to see if it breaks out, if it does ironically energy/oil could lead the market higher. People must be taking CRAZY PILLS!!!!
Also I am short M, from 8.55 and 8.99. Huge size came in yesterday at 9.00.
I am moving my stop on AF to 8.04.
I am only holding these BWLD puts because its a tiny tiny position and I hate this company so much.
Lets look at the S&P. We have a nice long term wedge forming, and if you break it down the purple trendline shows a tighter wedge being formed. We have failed to get above the purple trendline, 3 times already. I would call that resistance, but wait there is more resistance at the 20 EMA, the 50EMA and the larger trendline down. So the bulls have their work cut out for them, because if you look where support is, its the bottom of the wedge and then Nov lows.
On Tuesday I said I wanted to get long USO. USO actually came right to where I wanted to buy 28.11 but I didn't pull the trigger. I thought about it a little more. USO is forming a nice descending triangle and using that triangle risk/reward, was almost even. Now waiting a couple days, I might have been right. The Euro also looks like it wants to bounce, which could send oil down more.
I will wait to see if it breaks out, if it does ironically energy/oil could lead the market higher. People must be taking CRAZY PILLS!!!!
Also I am short M, from 8.55 and 8.99. Huge size came in yesterday at 9.00.
I am moving my stop on AF to 8.04.
I am only holding these BWLD puts because its a tiny tiny position and I hate this company so much.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Forget Techincal and Fundmental Analysis Part Uno
Every trader looks at charts and reads economic data to see where the market is going to go. But lets really look under the hood of America and look at the current culture of America and maybe this can give us an indication of where the market is heading.
First, lets take a look at the TV. It's America favorite past time, sitting on our ass watching TV. So this should give us a good buy or sell indicator.
Sadly, I watched what was on the "boob tube". And it gave me a strong sell signal, not because the shows were bad. But because somewhere in a focus group, my generation and younger, are telling douche bags with suits that they would watch these shows.
Tool Academy- This show made me almost give up on life.
Bromance(My spell check wanted to kill itself after I had to hit ignore)- A great a show for your buddy that calls and just wants to talk. We know your gay just say it
Hole in the Wall- No its not a show about a glory hole, its 3 idiots trying to fit through a Hole in the Wall.
The City- This show be a lot better if Whitney's apartment was in East New York. I'd watch this show then.
*NOTE- To all the girls who think they are going to be in high fashion and live like Whitney. PLEASE STOP COMING TO NY! It's not going to happen and Starbucks isn't hiring anymore so you won't have a job.
Deal or No Deal- PLEASE! Learn Risk/Reward.
Vh1- This includes any show that involves complete idiots that are trying at a chance to get herpes from another complete idiot or trying to win money verses other complete idiots.
Life on Mars- Oh, a rip off of Quantum Leap but you stay in the same year. Very Creative.
Real Housewives of Orange County, NY and Atlanta- Enough! The whole COUGAR fade is gone after younger dudes realized, a 21 year old is still a lot better then a 45 year old "with experience". Gravity always wins ladies
If you really want to get a good laugh, watch "On the Money". This is my favorite show. This is one of the best improv shows ever. They have these actors call up, and talk to the host and just make up these ridiculous predicaments that they got themselves into, people with thousands of dollars in debt and who were living way beyond their means, and now they need help. Oh wait that show is real, and the people are that dumb.
So clearly America still has a long way to go. So I am still bearish, till either I stop seeing reality shows or there is a show based on the Mad Max Beyond the Thunder Dome concept of 2 men enter 1 man leaves.
Up next: Sports, Movies and Music.
First, lets take a look at the TV. It's America favorite past time, sitting on our ass watching TV. So this should give us a good buy or sell indicator.
Sadly, I watched what was on the "boob tube". And it gave me a strong sell signal, not because the shows were bad. But because somewhere in a focus group, my generation and younger, are telling douche bags with suits that they would watch these shows.
Tool Academy- This show made me almost give up on life.
Bromance(My spell check wanted to kill itself after I had to hit ignore)- A great a show for your buddy that calls and just wants to talk. We know your gay just say it
Hole in the Wall- No its not a show about a glory hole, its 3 idiots trying to fit through a Hole in the Wall.
The City- This show be a lot better if Whitney's apartment was in East New York. I'd watch this show then.
*NOTE- To all the girls who think they are going to be in high fashion and live like Whitney. PLEASE STOP COMING TO NY! It's not going to happen and Starbucks isn't hiring anymore so you won't have a job.
Deal or No Deal- PLEASE! Learn Risk/Reward.
Vh1- This includes any show that involves complete idiots that are trying at a chance to get herpes from another complete idiot or trying to win money verses other complete idiots.
Life on Mars- Oh, a rip off of Quantum Leap but you stay in the same year. Very Creative.
Real Housewives of Orange County, NY and Atlanta- Enough! The whole COUGAR fade is gone after younger dudes realized, a 21 year old is still a lot better then a 45 year old "with experience". Gravity always wins ladies
If you really want to get a good laugh, watch "On the Money". This is my favorite show. This is one of the best improv shows ever. They have these actors call up, and talk to the host and just make up these ridiculous predicaments that they got themselves into, people with thousands of dollars in debt and who were living way beyond their means, and now they need help. Oh wait that show is real, and the people are that dumb.
So clearly America still has a long way to go. So I am still bearish, till either I stop seeing reality shows or there is a show based on the Mad Max Beyond the Thunder Dome concept of 2 men enter 1 man leaves.
Up next: Sports, Movies and Music.
8000 or Bust
Can we close above 8000 today, there is some chatter over at Slopeofhope.com (my favorite site, Tim does a great job with his blog and the people commenting are great) about this 8000 number. Tim, mentioned that we have had one closed below it once since the the lows in November.
I am looking to get back into USO again. I think the risk/reward is even better here, then before. I am actually going to set my stop a little below that Orange line. I know the trickery that the MM's can do and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take out those stops and then run it up
Although if we break through the bottom support and keep going down, I will buy DUG.
I am also looking at ACI for a head and shoulders play
I was stopped out of MOS yesterday, it was an ok trade. I didn't feel as comfortable with it the last couple of days as I did when I first entered the trade. I didn't place any new trades I actually didn't trade at all yesterday.
I am looking to get back into USO again. I think the risk/reward is even better here, then before. I am actually going to set my stop a little below that Orange line. I know the trickery that the MM's can do and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take out those stops and then run it up
Although if we break through the bottom support and keep going down, I will buy DUG.
I am also looking at ACI for a head and shoulders play
I was stopped out of MOS yesterday, it was an ok trade. I didn't feel as comfortable with it the last couple of days as I did when I first entered the trade. I didn't place any new trades I actually didn't trade at all yesterday.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Down again
Futures are pointing to a lower open this morning, this momentum could lead the market to break the support at 800 on SPX.
I was stopped out of USO yesterday, I set a tight stop on it. I didn't want to lose some profits on it and the overall weakness of the market did not give me the confidence to hold it much longer.
I am looking at GMCR for a short.
$TRIN was 2.29 on Friday, which is very high and could signal a reversal.
I was stopped out of USO yesterday, I set a tight stop on it. I didn't want to lose some profits on it and the overall weakness of the market did not give me the confidence to hold it much longer.
I am looking at GMCR for a short.
$TRIN was 2.29 on Friday, which is very high and could signal a reversal.
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