XLF breakout ?

XLF has a been a chart I've been watching for a while now.  On Friday XLF looks to have broken out of its triangle, but this break out happened later in the day and the volume of the break out was lacking.

Putting my money where my chart is, I went long some FAS because of this break out.  I entered long at 9.78 my stop is 9.85 as of now.  The break out of FAS actually looks a little weaker and with a lot less volume.  This is why my stop is tight on this trade.

Sunday Reading

Fall of the Mall

Commercial Real Estate — the Economy's Anvil
Troubled Bank Loans Hit a Record High
Unemployment Probably Topped 9% in May: U.S. Economy Preview
Zoellick Warns Stimulus ‘Sugar High’ Won’t Stem Unemployment
Manipulation: How Markets Really Work
Dissolving a town government

Here is what is up for the week ahead as well: (courtesy of http://www.tradethenews.com/)

Week of 6/1/2009 thru 6/5/2009

Monday, June 01, 2009

Economic

8:30am April Personal Income (last -0.3%), April Personal Spending (last -0.2%), April PCE Deflator y/y (last 0.6%), April PCE Core (last m/m 0.2%, y/y 1.8%)

10:00am May ISM Manufacturing (last 40.1), May ISM Prices Paid (last 32), April Construction Spending m/m (last 0.3%),

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Economic

10:00am April Pending Home Sales m/m (last 3.2%), TAF results

4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Economic

7:30am May Challenger Job Cuts y/y (last 47%)

8:15am May ADP Employment Change (last -491K)

10:00am May ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 43.7), April Factory Orders (last -0.9%)

10:30am DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Economic

7:00am BoE rate decision

7:45am ECB rate decision

8:30am Final Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (last 0.8%), Q1 Unit Labor Costs (last 3.3%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 623K), Continuing Claims (last 6.788M)

9:00am BoC rate decision

10:30am Natural Gas Inventories

11:00am Treasury note announcement

Friday, June 05, 2009

Economic

8:30am May Nonfarm Payrolls (last -539K), Unemployment Rate (last 8.9%), Manufacturing Payrolls (last -149K), Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 3.2%)

3:00pm March Consumer Credit (last -$11.1B)

SPX and all it's time frames

You have to give a slow clap to whatever that was at the end of the day on Friday, painting the tape, running stops, window dressing, front-running. Whatever it was, it wasn't normal market action.   If anyone tells you that is just the normal market.  Smack them.  Market Ticker has a great theory on what that was I recommend checking it out. 

Hindsight it looks like the market broke out of the small ascending triangle(look at the 60 min chart).  Had you just looked at a chart today that's what you would see.  But that isn't the case, the market decided to break out with only a few minutes left, which is way the move was nonsensical. Look at the 1 min chart.

 Here is the SPX 60 Min chart.  You can see the break out of the triangle which looks like a normal break out. Notice the SPX closed right at the descending triangle trendline.  The last 2 times it did this the market sold off(3rd time a charm?)  The 200MA is getting closer as well, if the market is going to breach this level, it could start another round of buying, since a break of the 200 would be seen as bullish.  I perfer the 200 EMA though. 

SPX daily closed right at its descending trendline, this could hold as resistance.  A breakout above this would send the market at least to its 200MA. SPX is still within it's triangle and needs to breakout/breakdown to give a market direction.

The weekly chart is something to take notice of, it is consolidating and constructing a pennant.  A break out of this will be very bullish so a move above 920-930 would be a big break of the pennant, but a break of 880 would be bearish.  This has been the range the market has chopped around for the last couple of weeks.  Till one of these S/R levels are broken expect a round bound market.

Since Friday was the end of the month, it is a good thing to look at the monthly chart.  This chart looks bullish but it is a longer-time frame and anything can happen. 

Sun Block or Fun in the Sun

Solars have enjoyed a nice run-up lately but can it last. Look at JASO, it almost had a 100% retracement from its lows. It failed to get above the resistance zone and notice the lower highs each time.(shorted JASO from 4.50)
UPDATE: Just looked at the chart and you can see a Cup and Saucer Pattern that formed. I got my stop tight on this now.

TAN is the solar sector ETF. It too is hitting up against resistance but a break above 10.09 and this could start a nice run. If TAN dips back below to the trendline and stays there, it may be a good buy or if it breaks out above 10.09 it could be a buy.

And regardless if Solars go up or down. WEAR SUN SCREEN! (remember this song)

XLF Watch

Still watching XLF here are 3  charts as of 11:24 and the live verisons of them via Stockcharts
XLF 15 Min LIVE  Trendline of the past 2 days is now broken

60 Min XLF Live Version  Still stuck in the descending triangle

Daily XLF 
Cant break out of triangle and consolidation

All over the place

The market was all over the place today. SPX had a quick drop down and quickly bounced up, again at the level where it bounced was at the 20ema and 60 Min trendline. There is still support via buying in the market.

If you don't believe that the 20ema is support look at the daily chart. This entire rally has been supported by the 20ema.

Tomorrow is the end of the month, what will June bring. This chart is looking kind of bullish as of today, STOCH cross and MACD turning upwards.

Watching XLF

 

If the triangle breaks it could be a good indication of where the market will go.

Here is the live version

Mirror Image

 

Here is the $NYAD with the SPXA200, notice how the last time the market fell both indicators were at the same levels.   

 

The SPXA200 is right at the same level when the market fell last time. 

Compare and Contrast

Yesterday we have a big up day for the market almost 3% and there was surprisingly a weak amount of upside volume for that big of a move.  So today we have a decent size down day and the volume to the downside was much stronger then compared to the volume to the upside yesterday. 

TICK confirmed this strength as well, registering a few -1000 ticks today

But again before the bears take any of control of this market they will to break through some support for more then a day.  The 20EMA on SPX still is holding support
SPX 60MIN-started to break down but again coming to support where the market bounced hard on Tuesday

Coming Back

XLF is coming back into the pink recentangle area.

Tomorrow it will be right at a sweet spot of that triangle either breaking out or breaking down.  Watch the 20EMA at 12.61, it has been strong support before its .10 away from it now at 3:36

Oil Short

Update: Stopped out for a small gain. Don't F with the Oil!


Look at the Oil Futures, it is hitting resistance at the 200 EMA. There has been a strong move in oil lately.

With /CL at resistance and the dollar at support there may be some weakness in the Oil coming up. Also looking at this chart of the $WTIC(same as /CL just EOD continuous data), it is hitting resistance and overbought.

A way to play this was to go long DTO(Double Inverse Oil)

It gapped down today and is at support, I picked up some shares early this morning.
Inventories are coming out today at 10:30 so this could go against the position, so I have my stop set.

Green Back

The greenback may be finding some support here.  There have been 3 consecutive up-days and the AB=CD move looks to be over.  There is some prior support at this level. 

A way to play the dollar's possible rebound is UUP(ProShares Double Long Dollar).

 

Quick and Dirty

Just another quick post, I will be back in full-effect tomorrow morning, this was not a fun weekend. First time really looking at charts since Friday.  

880 leveled held as I mentioned Monday evening.  And boy that was a big bounce.  But 910 held resistance, notice the overbought situation going on.

 

Mega B chart- Up volume was a little weak today for a almost 3% move up.

XLF- notice the triangle forming and getting closer to the sweet spot.

FOR YOU GRAMPS! RIP!

Memorial Day Charts

SPX 60
Trendline lines are breaking on the 60 MIN and SPX is below its 20 and 50 EMA.  880-875 may provide the first bounce.

SPX Daily:
SPX closes below the 20EMA, but barely.  The upper channel trendline is now broken as well, there could be a move down to the 50EMA.

XLF-
I will be watching these level on XLF.  Notice the triangle that is forming from the gray trendline and the purple downtrend line.  A break of these lines will eventually happen soon.

 

Here is the live version of this chart as well.

C-STATE!!!!!!!!

CORTLAND VS GETTYSBURG DIV 3 LACROSSE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME TODAY!!!!!!!!!

CONGRATS 2009 CHAMPS!

HAVE A GREAT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

Taking a break from the markets to enjoy a nice three day weekend.  It's a offically the start of the summer! Fire up the BBQ and cook your favorite meats or veggie burger and enjoy!

Here are some nice summer tunes for you to enjoy:

Stop Inverted Hammer Time

UPDATE: Sold my FAS pre-market didn't see the strength I wanted in the AM

So on a day when the market is down almost 2% those pesky financial stocks were up. In my post last night I gave you a nice chart of XLF, there was nice pretty pink box that said "LOTS OF SUPPORT". So going into today, XLF need to break at least 11.52. It hit it quickly ran up right after it. If you saw this that was your sign to get long. I bought some FAS because of this, now I have a clean out "If XLF breaks 11.52, sell FAS." Another reason to go long was XLF was right at this trendline and formed a nice inverted hammer. It actually looked better right before the close, now its a inverted fat hammer, hey fat hammers need loving too!!!

Here is an updated version of the chart from last night. That support level looks really good now.

Oh and incase you wanted a blast from the past here he is MC HAMMER himself

Following this chart

No new positions just waiting and watch


SPX CHART

20/50 Bearish cross on this chart as well

DUG the other white meat

Update: I am also watching these trendlines, if DUG doesn't break out I will re-evaluate the position

I bought some DUG(stop exit 17.17, target exit 22.50) yesterday based on a few charts.

USO- Oil has had a good run up lately and gapped up yesterday to resistance. The Stoch are overbought bought and that candle looks weak after a gap up.

So that was looking like a good short, so I looked at DIG the opposite of DUG
DIG has more resistance above and there is resistance of the down trendline. Also DIG's candle yesterday is a shooting star and also bearish. Confirmation of this reversal will be needed today though.

So then that leaves us with DUG: During the day looked to be making a nice double bottom, which it almost did, but it is bullish since it and hasn't made a new low. Yesterday's candle is bullish forming a hammer after 4 days down. A break above 18.50 to 19.00 will also be a break of down trendline from past 4 days.

Hump Day review

Today on the 60 min  Shooting star candle stick to a trendline break, was a nice trade today.  But there is support below, notice the black trendline, this has held.  It is also important to note that the SPX did close below its 60 min 50EMA, it just barely closed below it.  MACD also turned down today. 

On a daily chart, not to much was done.  The bears did hold resistance, but the bulls have their trusty trendline below and this has been a place of bull support.  Yes we formed a shooting star but it isn't after a nice uptrend.  Its a very weak candle then.

XLF- may have started to break down. It broke through it's recent 5 day trendline.  But notice the key support levels it may reach, it will take some strong selling to get through this support.

To the dollar, which is starting to turn into nickles.  The move down in the dollar may be over soon.  It looks to have completed a AB=CD pattern, from its high. It could end around 81.30-80.00

Shooting Star intra day

The SPX 60 Min last candle was a shooting star and the market is giving us confirmation with this candle, plus there is a trendline break.

You can control my thermostat too

U.S. Considers Stripping SEC of Powers in Regulatory Overhaul (Bloomberg)

 How about you just make the SEC do their job.  There job is:

The SEC’s job is to regulate stock markets, police securities sales and make sure public companies make adequate disclosures to investors about their finances.

 Now you want to Fed to have the power of the SEC!!! How is this even legal!!


Karl Denninger over at Market Ticker is just as outraged!! 


I was able to obtain the new Series 7 questions that will be able to 



Question 1:


A client comes to you with information about a stock, that is confidental you should:
A) Tell the client that this is inside information and not cannot be used
B) Tell the clien you can't use this information, then after he/she leaves buy a boat load of the stock for your big clients and yourself
C) Tell the client its a great idea, front-run their order and buy shares for yourself then buy shares for the client
D) Front-Run the client, tell your friends and familyand big clients, then buy the client into the stock


Answer:
(D)

The Big Yellow one is the Sun (A look at the solar stocks)

Solar stocks have started to break out today. First lets look at the sector ETF which Claymore so cleverly named TAN


TAN:
Notice the consolation the last few days and the break out today along with volume. A break above 10.50 is confirmation of the bullishness

SOLF- here is the true break out stock of the sector. First notice the Hammer formed yesterday, that was bullish. Then today the stock breaks out above two resistance points on huge volume. This stock could break out to the 200EMA.

JASO- I snatched up some of this guy pre-market around 2.80. This is support for this stock it bounced off this today very well. A break above the 50EMA would spur further upside.

YGE- another solar in a strong up-trend and above its 200EMA

One thing I like about this sector is the stocks are breaking out and the STOCH on them are all in neutral territory so if the do run up, they will not hit overbought levels quickly. For more information on Solar stocks go to http://www.solarfeeds.com/

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.The charts and ideas are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

VIX Break Down

The VIX has once again broken down, but this time it has broken down of its longer-term trend line and triangle.

Does this mean there is a lack of fear in the market or that volatility is leaving the market? We can use other indicators to determine this.
CPC is showing not enough bullishness:

The Bullish Percentage is still not at it's highest levels.

So there is still some fear left, but its getting close to a bulltopia.

Nibbling on some Puts around 26 might not be a bad idea. So let the VIX head down some more, let the bulls get happy and keep drooling over their "Green Shits", then the bears can strike. But course if enter these trades because of this site, you could lose money, its part of the market. And then because you are broke and lost money, you will have to start selling yourself for money and if you watched Basketball Diaries you know its not fun.