Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Divergence anyone?

Lots of divergence going on in the market, SPX is making new intra-day highs(has not made a new closing high) while breadth indicators and indicators that are not following this trend. 

NYAD- the last rallies were lead by the a higher highs on NYAD

TICK- the moving averages on tick are trending down, the last rallies they moved up with the market.

NYHL- (New High's and New Lows')- Last time stocks made new highs with the market.  Doesn't mean it can't happen but if the market is making new highs, so should stocks.


SPX (hourly)- MACD divergence, also notice the bullish divergence on the MACD before the rally.

SPX (daily)- MACD Divergence


IYT- Transports, double divergence on the MACD and with Dow Theory.  Trannies should be making new highs with the market

$USD- Bullish Divergence, MACD not making new lows, USD is.









Sunday, November 8, 2009

Some more charts

I got more comments just posting one chart on Friday then I do posting commentary. I really enjoy the charts people posted and comments. Thanks!
I guess KISS(Keep. It. Simple. Stupid) works.

So here are some more charts, feel free to post charts or make comments. Feel free to email me if you want me to post any charts you have.
Here is an updated chart from Friday. No real break of the triangle:

SPX Daily:

IYR:


$DJUSEN(DIG AND DUG)


NYSI is nearing a support level

Friday, November 6, 2009

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Advancers and Decliners

Here is a chart of NYAD (Advancers-Decliners), notice anything different about the latest "dip". Breadth is stronger to the downside this time around then the previous market pullbacks.

NYAD has broken below its 3 important moving averages and it broke it's up trendline since March(trendline is not drawn on the chart). During this rally NYAD had never dropped below its 39EMA. It is now failing to get above the 39EMA and the other moving averages are crossing and looking bearish. If the 19 EMA crosses the 39EMA it can be seen as bearish. Of course breaks above these moving averages would be bullish and if NYAD starts leading price it would be even more bullish. But for now the NYAD looks bearish.

Here is NYAD in 2007-2008; notice when the NYAD moving averages cross

Monday, November 2, 2009

.05

On Friday of last week the bears finally had a nice day, beating the bulls in every sector.   It  was such a  bad beating that Up-Volume was almost non-existent.  For the second time in a month, the Up-Volume to Total Volume Ratio was .05.
The most recent time this occurred was Oct 1st, here is the post about it on that day.

So now this event has a occurred 20 times since the 1980.  Here is a list of how the SPX preformed after this event.

Now we can add October 1st to this list:
SPX 1 day after=-4.24
SPX 5 days after= 36.03
SPX 10 days after= 67.11

There is a good possibility of a market bounce from here based on historical moves after .05 up-volume day.

Another good reason to support a bounce is an over sold condition on both the hourly chart and daily chart.

On the hourly the Stoch indicator is nearing oversold but one thing to take away from the chart is the MACD indicator.  Notice how it did not make a new low with the market on Friday, this is an example of a bullish divergence set-up.


On a daily time frame, stoch is also oversold, but not deeply oversold and can actually drop down more.

What will be key going forward to watch is SPX can first get back above 1047-1050, the bulls now have to get out of the bearish engulfing candle from Friday.  But if the market drops it will be important how the market handles the 1025 level.  It would form a double bottom at the level and may provide a bouncing point.  The rally in earlier October started at the same level, after having a .05/.95 day.  So keep a look out for this.  But one thing is for sure, volatility is back and there may be more large one sided swings like this in the future.