Monday, April 20, 2009

Yeah but were they really selling today

YEP! So lets sum up what happen today. The market gets earnings from BAC and they were "Great Earnings" but wasn't enough to get the market going up. Then a possible leak of the banks "stress test", sent the market lower. But was there strength behind this down move, meaning was it a few stocks taking the market down or a big overall drop in all stocks.

The MEGA B(check it live throughout the day) chart can give you a good look the breadth of the market:
Just look at the volume for the downside today. Big spikes in both decliners and down volume. Then look at the up volume and advancers, look hard because its really tiny.


$NYAD-Just shows what the MEGA B was showing but a little cleaner.


TICK- gives another clear signal that the day belong to the bears. Additional for the last couple of days the TICK has been weakening which is giving a clear signal that the buying has dried up.


$NYSI-At its highest levels since 2007, but is stalling the ATR is slowing down so the volatility of the moves of $NYSI are slowing and you can see it in the chart. $NYSI turning down would be bearish for the market. Since this is a longer-term indicator it would mean more downside is possible


MEGA-
$NYMO- a strong move down, 20 points away from the 0 line.
$SPXA50- Little turn down but still stocks are above the 50's
$SPXA200- 200's are suppose to be strong support clearly not. this indicator had a big dip down today. Could this be foreshadowing of what could happen to the 50's?
$VIX- big move up today, bullish engulfing pattern.



So far the all the indicators and internals favor the bears, they were clearly in control of the market today. One thing to notice is how the Moving Averages on the indicators and breadth are during lower. I also think the SPXA200 shows that a lot of stocks were not up on strength since the 200's were so easily broken.
It is surprising but not really at all, that the bulls have disappeared from this market, and just not a slow disappearance was very Jamestown like. They were there on Friday and screaming about the BEST MARKET, THE ECONOMY IS FIXED, and today they were gone. Maybe they were enjoying 4/20, since you have to be high to believe some of these earnings from the banks.