Sunday, May 10, 2009

The bull train is crowded

One  thing to notice is that the bull train is getting crowded.  Various market sentiment indicators are pointing to high levels of bullishness. 

 
ISEE is also high at 136 any number above 100 is bullish.
All Securities
TimeCallsPutsTotalISEE
16:158603866345861494972136

Other indicators such as AII and Investors Intelligence show a market skewed to the bullish side. 

$BPSPX- Is at levels in 2007 as well, which is showing the crowd is bullish.  


Also take note that this week is OPEX week, and with the market skewed to the bullish side.  A lot of calls are now in the money and many of those calls written will expire in the money.  So if you are a believer in MAX PAIN theory, which is- 

Max Pain== This comes from the theory of maximum pain, which states that most traders who buy and hold options contracts until they expire will lose money)
then the market may have to pull back to make some of those calls expire worthless.

 Here a few sectors Max Pain.  Courtesy of http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php



SPY- 86.00
XLF- 10.00
FAZ- 7.50
IYR- 32.00
 

But Max Pain is a theory and market will do whatever it wants, more people can jump on the bull train and cause this market to go higher. 

Bull Train : Getting Crowded

Bear Train: Plenty of room for you to sit