Friday, May 8, 2009

Main St is unemployed Wall St cheers

Can you really blame the public for believing this rally, when they read this astute journalism.  Maybe they should actually read the Unemployment report and report what is acutally going on.  If that is to much read what I wrote this morning

Anyway the market rallied again on bad good news and the dollar taking a bath. 

The market opened up and never looked back.  925-930 was providing resistance but the bulls were able to break right through it.  The next resistance is at 943-953, this will be important for the bears to hold.  The bulls have plenty of support underneath them, have the trend at their back and the media pumping the market.  So the bears are up against a big force.  But Bears are like the 300 Spartans and love having the odds stacked against them. 
On a weekly chart, the market is overbought, but a Stoch overbought indicator has been pretty much useless.  Again the resistance is at 950.  The candle that formed was a White Marubozu. This is a bullish candle but has low reliability and needs confirmation.  




The VIX has been on  a constant decline lately and today was no different.  But the MACD looks bullish.  The VIX has been making lows and the MACD has remained constant.  Stoch is oversold and crossed giving a buy signal.  The VIX also bounced off support late in the day, so high 31's could be support. 



So far I have 3 signals:
XLF>12  (my FAS hedge worked out great today)
VIX<32
DX(USD) < 83.40.  I am looking for support at 82 though. 


To complete the plan, SPX still has to get get to 943.  At this level, it would offer the best risk/reward level.  Enjoy your weekend and hug your moms !!!!