Friday, May 8, 2009

The real unemployment number

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus
total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers   =       15.8%

 What was this number last April, it was 8.9%.  That is a 77.5% increase. 

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in April, 675,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 740,000 discouraged workers in April, up by 328,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. "


Let's not forget the revisions:

"The change in total nonfarm employment for February was revised from -651,000 to -681,000, and the change for March was revised from -663,000 to -699,000. Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors."
The only sectors that were hiring were Education, Health Care and of course The Government. 

Yes unemployment is a lagging indicator, but it hasn't been improving unlike the ADP report on Tuesday which show the country losing less jobs then last quarter and everyone was screaming from the top of their mountain to BUY BUY BUY.  Clearly, the economy is still weak and more people are losing jobs.  Where will the "new jobs" come from, that is the question.