Retail

Retail numbers come out today.   The way this rally has been working if the numbers are bad the market will rally.  And since the country as a whole loves to spend money they don't have, retail numbers might not be that bad.  Maybe the RTH(Retail Holders) chart can tell us what may lie ahead for retail.

RTH did break through resistance above 80 but was not able to stay there and most of the candles above 80 are bearish candles. RTH is now below 80 and has also broken its March uptrendline.  Further bearish price action is indicated by RTH closing below its 20EMA.  More significantly is that volume has dried up since early March when the rally started in RTH.  This lack of volume may signal the run-up was on fumes and not a rally on strength.

Here are the 3 largest components of RTH

HD- Failed at key resistance levels, below 20 EMA and making a rounded reversal.  Moving Averages rolling over as well. 

WMT- Unable to get above it's 200EMA, and there is a good amount of overhead supply above 52.

TGT- Resistance from 2008, a strong run-up with a diverging MACD and the Stoch is overbought.

So if the retail numbers are good it is possible for this sector to rally, but it needs to on volume.  Any rally without volume is just adding to the already weak push up.  It's 3 largest components look to be running up to resistance as well.