Friday, June 5, 2009

What lies beneath (XLF, FAZ)

The financials have been key to this rally, it all started with the infamous Citi memo that was "found". Since then this sector has lead the market, but recently XLF has been making consecutive candlesticks that signal indecision in the sector. But looking at the indicators underneath the chart there is some possible signs that the rally in financials might be losing steam. MACD is showing bearish divergence on XLF and FAZ is showing bullish divergence.

Since May 11th the price of XLF has steadily risen, yet MACD has been on a steady decline since this day. This is showing some clear bearish divergence on the price. XLF failed at its 200MA today and has not been able to get above it's highs from earlier in May while SPX has been able to make new highs.


Another chart that might add fuel to the bears fire on XLF is FAZ the (3X Bear Financial ETF). This chart is showing some clear Bullish divergence. The price of FAZ has been on a steady decline since the rally yet the MACD has climbed.


Yes a bull might say, this is comparing Apples to Oranges since one is 3X ETF. So to compare apples to apples, we can compare XLF's divergence to SEF (Short Financial ETF)
SEF shows clear bullish divergence and it is also forming a double bottom. How do you like them apples.

Take a look at FAS and UYG for more bearish divergence
Take a look at SKF for more bullish divergence