Thursday, July 16, 2009

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas

The current rally has some striking similar patterns to the rally in late December of last year.  These patterns are shown on the MEGA B chart
There is a drop down to support prior to the move, then a quick 3 day move up and the market stalls.  More similar are the Volume Moving averages and volume patterns.  There is complete drop of declining volume and the moving average reaches a low point.  Also notice the sharp jump in TICK.
If that isn't something that matches, lets look at the hourly chart.
Here is the current chart.
 RSI above 80, long climb in the MACD and a STOCH that is well overbought an chopping around in that area.  Now take a look at December-January chart.
RSI above 80 again, STOCH chopping around overbought and MACD shot up.
The market is testing its June highs again this could provide some resistance and with the market way overbought short-term there could be a pull back.
Of course, if everyone has now turned bullish(Whitney, Roubini) this market can keep rising up till 1000.  I am looking for the gap to be filled before next week.