Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Skeptical

Breaking out the MEGA B chart which hasnt been done in a while, Take a lookat the the NYUPV(up volume) its 13EMA moving average is moving towards a key area. Notice how the NYUPV has never made a significant move below the 500 level. Also when it gets to this level, the market tends to bounce.
Why is that important, because yesterday the market moves right to the neckline of its Head and Shoulders pattern, a break of this would signal another move down. Yet the market stops right at its neckline. This could have sucked in a lot of shorts thinking that the neckline was broken, or will break. This is also a key support level for the market.
I remain skeptical of this move and have my stop tights. Another reason for the skepticism is the 60 Min hourly chart, although it made a new low MACD did not move to a new low. It did the same in late June and it remains at the -7.5 level.

I think the 890 level will be key to watch, it has been previous support for bulls which is now resistance and it is also the 20 EMA for the weekly chart. Till we get a clear signal I remain short (via SDS and FAZ) but skeptical.