Sunday, July 19, 2009

Won't be fooled again!

So last week there was a large scale slaughter of many bears as the H&S failed and was a fake out by the bulls.  I always like too look back and see if there was some signals being given to show the fake out.
The first part of this sweet pump-fake out was the sell off it was strong and fast, lead by TICK and strong negative breadth.  The pump was set up.  The bears were running towards the shooter and thinking "He is shooting block this shot".
Then the market fails at 885 and starts ripping down, and this is when the bears think the market is going to break those lows.  This is the gray arrow.
BUT! this is what the bears should've saw.  During the second move down, there was an increase in positive breadth, tick was increasing and negative breadth was decreasing.  These were not bearish conditions. In fact the market had started a new trendline up.

So running full force at the shooter, thinking shot all the bulls had to do was wait for the bears to jump, dribble once and drive it right to the basket.  
So the lesson to learn from this is to watch breadth and make sure its still trending in the direction your position is going.  Don't get burned by a fake out, now that we know what one looks like we hopefully won't get faked out again.

We could be seeing another possible fake out as the market has climbed on positive breadth that is declining?  Could this bear fake out?  Stay tuned to find out.

Here are some even better fake outs by the great Pistol Pete: