Tuesday, August 4, 2009

To a real chart

Here is the SPX hourly. 
Break it down real easy, it has a rising wedge pattern, the flag pattern it formed is completed around 1005-1010.  STOCH is nearing overbought, MACD failed to move up with this market.  That is short-term
 Here is the SPX daily chart, with the MEGA B.  One thing the bears should be worried about is first, notice the pick up in the UPVOLUME and the advancers.  This is bullish.
Also, I mentioned in late July to watch when the Down Volume gets to the green line there is a chance of a pull back.  This occured on 7/28 7/29 and SPX had the two day weak bull back. In that post I said to watch how the market reacts to a pullback; a pullback from this line may shallow since SPX is above its 200EMA.  The bullback was very shallow.  Also be aware of the EMA are turning up, and the 50EMA and 200EMA are almost crossing. Don't forget the longer-term what happen July 15th when the down volume was at .03.
The entire bear market is looking unstable here.



 Although the week just started and there is a chance of a pullback, the weekly chart has broken out of it's long-term trendline.
Again the month only started but it has now closed above it 200EMA.

These can change since it's the beginning of the week and month.

Here is the BPSPX chart, it is now above 75 and entered the B.S Zone.  Notice when it reaches these levels there is a pullback.  But also note how it can remain in this level during a bull market.

A pullback to the June high's is possible but also watch for chop in this area.  Pullbacks have been few and far between and chop has been the way to work off the overbought conditions.
One thing to still watch is the dumb dollar.  It has broken through 78 and now rest on a weak long-term trendline from Sept 08.   If this line can't hold, 76 is looking more realistic and George Washington is going to walk off the dollar.