Monday, September 21, 2009

Choppy Seas



Shocking, market reaches new highs and proceeded by a few days of chop.  The last three times the market did this it made a move down. Not only did it make a move down but then bounced off the trendline.  SPX is close to that trendline now and if the market does drop this may provide a bounce area.  If this trendline breaks, it would be bearish.  It is possible to expect more chop, with a FOMC meeting on Wednesday.  One thing that might stop the chop is oil breaking its triangle. 

Oil managed to stay above its support at 69 today, but it is coming into the sweet spot of it's triangle and should start a new move which way it breaks. The indicators are leaning towards a break to the downside on the triangle. MACD histogram is almost negative and STOCH is overbought and crossed. 

This would be about an 8 point measured move on Oil or a 10% move.  Oil moving 10% either way would really move this market.