Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Someone gets it

Main stream media has been talking up a storm about the rise in oil and how great it is that energy prices are going up.  That demand must be increasing therefore the economy is improving, energy companies are leading the market up.  Well with oil /CL being on the verge of $70 it is nice to know that someone gets it.

"RISING GAS PRICES THREATEN TO SLOW A RECOVERY"  (NYTIMES)



 
There comes a point where higher energy prices will have to be seen as a negative to the recovering economy.  The consumer is already having to stretch to spend on basic items and has little left for disposable income.  With DPI only rising 1.1% in April a strong rise in gas prices could limit any new growth in disposable income. With an economy so dependent on consumerism, any attack on the consumers DPI will be a negative for the economy.  
We also saw from the unemployment data that the average hourly wage has not increased in May and that  the average hourly earnings in the past 12 months have increased only by 3.1%, yet the price of gas has increased 63%.  The rise in oil is greatly outpacing any growth in wages, leaving the consumer at the end of each day with even less money in their pocket. 
So the fact energy stocks keep rising and oil keeps climbing doesn't really mean the economy is doing better, because in reality these conditions will only hurt the consumer.