Thursday, June 11, 2009

Trend has anyone seen a trend

June 1st SPX= 942.87
June 11 SPX= 944.89

This just shows you how intra-day moves can really affect your trading.  Had you just got back from vacation, prison, and 10 day meth binge and saw that the SPX was only up 2 points, you wouldn't have cared that it broke 950 and came back or dropped to 929. That is why it is important to also understand your time frames that you are trading in.

More importantly this shows that since June 1st there has not been a trend in the market.  It has chopped around the 950's and 930's.  While this is great for day trading, and people who wrote calls, it is not good for someone trying to trade a trend.

Today the bears were able to defend the 950 level.  This clearly been a resistance level and a strong one at that.  The bulls keep breaking above it but fail to close above it, which is more important then an intra day break. There is a small trend on the 60min chart, the market is making lower lows and higher highs, but cant close at these levels.  

 


There was weakness in the sectors that should have followed the overall market move up:
RTH(retail) -1.45% 
IYR(real-estate) -1.86%
XLI (industrial) -.17&
QQQQ(tech) 0%

The move today was fueled by commodities again and a weak dollar.

XLF barely moved today as well, but again it closed under its 200MA, it is also getting close to its 20EMA and the triangle it is making is getting tigther.   Still holding my FAZ.