Monday, September 14, 2009

Keep your eye on the birdie

Update:  
What to watch out for today:
Nothing is looking to bearish right now or bullish.  CHOP CHOP CHOP

1030-if SPX hits this level it may provide a bounce area (This occurred)
1044- a break above this would be very bullish  (Still waiting but providing resistance)
Oil, watch to see if it rallies or drops (could hint of a market rally or a move down especially if SPX is close to 1030)  (Oil has climbed back from its lows)
Dollar- it is up already this morning but if /DX cannot stay above 77, look for a rally.  (Dollar fell to get back down below 77)
BEWARE OF CHOP!   The last two tops have been marked by 3-4 days of chop, with dips down and rips up.  Watch out for this!  (STILL WATCH FOR CHOP!!!)



Here is an updated chart from Friday's History post.  One thing to notice is that oil is nearing support at 23 and /CL is nearing support 68 and high 67's.  So if history does repeat it's self, oil may bounce at this those level causing the market to bounce. This level is where oil rallied from on 9/7, sending the market ripping up the last 25 points.  (LIVE VERSION OF THIS CHART)
On Friday oil took a beating down over 3%, now as it nears support will oil rally again to help stocks rally.
SPX is hitting resistance above 1040 and 1044 has provided strong resistance.  The two trendlines provided resistance on Friday; first the green trendline which is the broken up trendline from July to August and the top of the rising wedge also provided resistance. 
Notice the long term divergence on the MACD and  RSI failure to make new highs plus it's bearish divergence.  This can imply a lack of strength behind the rally.  

What to watch out for today:

1030-if SPX hits this level it may provide a bounce area
1044- a break above this would be very bullish
Oil, watch to see if it rallies or drops (could hint of a market rally or a move down especially if SPX is close to 1030)
Dollar- it is up already this morning but if /DX cannot stay above 77, look for a rally. 
BEWARE OF CHOP!   The last two tops have been marked by 3-4 days of chop, with dips down and rips up.  Watch out for this!

Based on Sunday's NYSI post and looking at the SPX charts, a move down may occur.  How far and how deep that is unknown, The bears need to break some support first in order to get excited.


Here is one chart to just look at:
  The last rally, wasn't lead by a lot of upvolume and advancers didn't make a new high with the market.  Decliners and Down volume didn't make a new low either.  Something to think about.