Monday, September 14, 2009

Volume Anyone Seen Volume

SPX made a new high today but since it was such a nice day in NYC most of the traders must have been outside at the Vietnamese Sandwich Cart(way regional NYC, Financial District reference), because volume today was anything but special.
Look at the total volume it was almost like a holiday trading day. Notice the upvolume, yeah it sucked. So the market is making new highs on low volume. That isn't seen as bullish.
But volume doesn't seem to matter anymore, this entire rally has been on declining volume. Look the moving averages for the NYTV, all have been declining since market started this rally.
Every technical analysis book preaches about Volume must confirm the move. But clearly for the past 6 months this is not the case.

One possible reason for the lack of volume in recent months could be the lack of participants in the market.
Before the collapses, think about how many firms there where. Lehman and Bear's where still around, as were others. Look at all these firms, there was a $1.87 billion market cap. This was at the peak of the market.

Now look:

Charts available at NYTIMES

So now there are fewer firms and firms have less cash to leverage themselves. This is just theory but it is something to think about for the lack of volume.
Of course it could be the market just getting pumped up via HFT, POMO's, manipulation and shorts being squeezed every day.
But I will stick with technical analysis and say eventually volume will have to confirm this move or volume will have to come back into this market, it just depends on what side of the market it is.