Tuesday, September 15, 2009

On thin ice

1054 held as resistance today barely though.  SPX closed at 1052 and managed to break above it to 1056.  ( I am holding SDS from these levels, this is probably a risky stupid trade don't try it without having a good stop and knowing you will lose money. There is my disclaimer)
While the bears can boast about how the held their resistance there is a lot for the bears to brag about too.
First to the bulls:
Took the market to new highs today,
Look at the NYHL chart:  The market finally rips to new highs and so does this indicator.  This is bullish for stocks.
Stocks making new 52 week highs ripped up today along with the market.
Both these indicators show that stocks were making new highs in conjunction with the market.

But the bears also have something to smile about.
First resistance held at 1054. (from the charts above)
Second $BPSPX has hit a extreme bullish level, reaching 85 today.
Last time BPSPX hit this level the market declined for a whopping 1 DAY!

Up-volume did not exert itself as it typically would for a market making new highs.   SPX makes new highs, 221 stocks make a new 52 week high, yet up-volume was barely there again.
The market has had better up-volume days when the market wasn't making new highs.  There have been a few .90 NYTV:NYUPV days during this rally.  These one sided up-days have disappeared as the market made new highs.  Look at the negative breadth on this chart, it was actually up today.

Also notice the divergence going on with Decliners and Advancers:
Again if the market was making new highs you would want to see strength in these internals.  But one cannot ignore the fact the market is making new highs.  There was a similar run up in July that just keep going, so nothing says it can't stop.